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Are extreme returns priced in the stock market? European evidence

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  • ANNAERT, Jan
  • DE CEUSTER, Marc
  • VERSTEGEN, Kurt
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    Abstract

    This paper revisits some recently found evidence in the literature on the cross-section of stock returns for a carefully constructed dataset of euro area stocks. First, we find evidence of a negative cross-sectional relation between extreme positive returns and average returns after controlling for characteristics such as momentum, book-to-market, size, liquidity and return reversal. We argue that this is the case because these stocks have lottery-like characteristics. Second, when we control for this relation, the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle seems to disappear. When extreme positive returns are included in the regression, we find a weak but positive relation between idiosyncratic volatility and returns. Lastly, the maximum return effect holds when we control for skewness. Moreover, skewness is on its own negatively related to returns in our sample, as several asset pricing models predict.

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    File URL: https://www.uantwerpen.be/images/uantwerpen/container1244/files/TEW%20-%20Onderzoek/Working%20Papers/RPS/2012/RPS-2012-018.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2012018.

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    Length: 19 pages
    Date of creation: Sep 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ant:wpaper:2012018

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    Postal: Prinsstraat 13, B-2000 Antwerpen
    Web page: https://www.uantwerp.be/en/faculties/applied-economic-sciences/
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    Related research

    Keywords: Extreme returns; Cross-section of expected returns; Lottery-like payoffs; Skewness; Idiosyncratic volatility puzzle;

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    References

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    1. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
    2. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2005. "Liquidity and Expected Returns: Lessons From Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 11413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, 06.
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    9. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
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    11. Dimson, Elroy, 1979. "Risk measurement when shares are subject to infrequent trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 197-226, June.
    12. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2011. "Maxing out: Stocks as lotteries and the cross-section of expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 427-446, February.
    13. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    14. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    15. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. " Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-98, July.
    16. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2008. "High Idiosyncratic Volatility and Low Returns: International and Further U.S. Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    18. Kraus, Alan & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1976. "Skewness Preference and the Valuation of Risk Assets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1085-1100, September.
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