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Política Fiscal Através Do Ciclo E Operação Dos Estabilizadores Fiscais

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  • Fabiana Rocha

Abstract

O objetivo deste artigo é analisar a relação entre ciclo econômico e finanças públicas no Brasil. Dado que no período recente o objetivo principal da política fiscal brasileira foi satisfazer a meta de superávit primário de 4,25% do PIB acordada com o Fundo Monetário Internacional procura-se avaliar, ainda, os impactos da adoção desta meta sobre a operação plena e efetiva dos estabilizadores automáticos. Encontra-se evidência de que não houve uma tentativa deliberada e sistemática por parte das autoridades fiscais de estabilizar a economia através do ciclo usando políticas discricionárias. A política fiscal, contudo, tornou-se menos pró-cíclica depois da adoção da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal. Na média o comportamento fiscal tem sido consistente com um superávit de 4,25% do PIB desde 1999, usando-se uma regra fiscal de Taylor. A frequência de violações no limite do superávit diminui com o nível de superávit estrutural, sendo exigido um superávit estrutural elevado para manter o risco de um superávit menor do que a meta a um nível baixo.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its series Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] with number 011.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:anp:en2007:011

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  1. Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 2005. "Why is fiscal policy often procyclical?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2090, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2004. "When it Rains, it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Working Papers 10780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963, August.
  5. Adriana Arreaza & Bent E. Sorensen & Oved Yosha, 1998. "Consumption Smoothing through Fiscal Policy in OECD and EU Countries," NBER Working Papers 6372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
  7. Bennett Sutton & Luis Catão, 2002. "Sovereign Defaults," IMF Working Papers 02/149, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Buti, Marco & Franco, Daniele & Ongena, Hedwig, 1998. "Fiscal Discipline and Flexibility in EMU: The Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 81-97, Autumn.
  9. Fabrizio Balassone & Maura Francese, 2004. "Cyclical asymmetry in fiscal policy, debt accumulation and the Treaty of Maastricht," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 531, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  10. André Sapir & Marco Buti, 1998. "Economic policy in EMU," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8078, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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