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Nonlinearities And Price Puzzle In Brazil

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  • Roberto Tatiwa Ferreira
  • Ivan Castelar

Abstract

What is called a price puzzle is a positive and persistent response of ination to a unit shock in the interest rate's innovation. Using a VAR to analyse monetary policy in Brazil, this paper comes to the conclusion that when nonlinearities in the data were considered, most of this e_ect vanishes. This is done _rstly by checking if the series are unit root processes or nonlinear trend stationary. After that a nonparametric co-trending analysis was applied. The test result favored a common nonlinear trend between ination and the interest rate, which seems to a_ect the system innovation analysis, inducing most of the price puzzle e_ect.

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Paper provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its series Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] with number 163.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:anp:en2006:163

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  1. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The effects of monetary policy shocks: evidence from the Flow of Funds," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  4. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  5. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Testing the unit root with drift hypothesis against nonlinear trend stationarity, with an application to the US price level and interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 29-64, November.
  6. Cati, Regina Celia & Garcia, Marcio G P & Perron, Pierre, 1999. "Unit Roots in the Presence of Abrupt Governmental Interventions with an Application to Brazilian Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 27-56, Jan.-Feb..
  7. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  8. Perron, P., 1989. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Changing Mean," Papers 347, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  9. Bierens, H.J., 1996. "Nonparametric Nonlinear Cotrending Analysis, with an Application to Interest and Inflation in the U.S," Discussion Paper 1996-62, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  10. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
  11. André Minella, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Inflation in Brazil (1975-2000): A VAR Estimation," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 57(3), pages 605-635, July.
  12. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "'Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts: The effects of monetary policy' : by Christopher Sims," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1001-1011, June.
  13. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2004. "Is There a Price Puzzle in Brazil? An Application of Bias-Corrected Bootstrap," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 577, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
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