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A Restrição Externa Como Fator Limitante Do Crescimento Econômico Brasileiro: Um Teste Empírico

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  • Antonio Tiago Loureiro Araújo dos Santos
  • Gilberto Tadeu Lima
  • Veridiana Ramos da Silva Carvalho

Abstract

This paper draws upon original works by A. Thirlwall and some recent developments of them, particularly those made by J. C. Moreno-Brid, on the balance-of- payments constraints to growth in several countries. It is intended, by means of new empirical tests, to evaluate the specification of such a constraint that better suit to the brazilian case and to test whether it has been really binding. New robust evidence is found that economic growth in Brazil was actually balance-of payments-constrained in the 1948- 2004 period. However, unlike what intuition could lead one to expect a priori, the model specification that incorporates capital flows and external debt dynamics does not differ much from the original specification of Thirlwall´s Law regarding a softening of the external constraint.

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Paper provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its series Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33th Brazilian Economics Meeting] with number 066.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:anp:en2005:066

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