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Criação De Valor Através Da Estratégia De Procrastinação

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  • Elizabeth Krauter
  • Herbert Kimura
  • Leonardo Fernando Cruz Basso
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    Abstract

    This research considers a mathematical model for pricing the procrastination option. The concept of procrastination will be discussed from the point of view of Psychology, Economy, Finance and Strategy. The maximum limit of the strategy of procrastination will be investigated, considering the cash flow loss due to the possible first move of the competition and considering the benefit of the reduction of uncertainty due to the information that becomes available as time passes. A simulation will be presented aiming to establish the benefits of the optimum exercise of the option. The results, amongst others, suggest that one must delay projects in environments in which the costs of procrastination, measured by a salience parameter, are low; the factor of decline of the cash flows of projects is low and the increment of risk in the short term is high. The limitations of the study and the applicability of the model for the Brazilian reality are also discussed.

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    File URL: http://www.anpec.org.br/encontro2004/artigos/A04A092.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its series Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32th Brazilian Economics Meeting] with number 092.

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    Date of creation: 2004
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    Handle: RePEc:anp:en2004:092

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    1. Matthew Rabin & Ted O'Donoghue, 1999. "Doing It Now or Later," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 103-124, March.
    2. Ted O' Donoghue and Matthew Rabin., 2000. "Choice and Procrastination," Economics Working Papers E00-281, University of California at Berkeley.
    3. George A. Akerlof, 2002. "Behavioral Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 411-433, June.
    4. Akerlof, George A, 1991. "Procrastination and Obedience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 1-19, May.
    5. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October.
    6. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March.
    7. Loewenstein, George & Thaler, Richard H, 1989. "Intertemporal Choice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 181-93, Fall.
    8. Thaler, Richard, 1981. "Some empirical evidence on dynamic inconsistency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 201-207.
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