IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/anp/en2004/080.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Câmbio, Inflação E Juros Na Transição Do Regime Cambial Brasileiro: Uma Análise De Vetores Auto-Regressivos E Causalidade

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos de Almeida Cardoso
  • Flávio Vilela Vieira

Abstract

The present work examines the exchange regime transition in Brazil (1994 to 2003) based on the hypothesis of the existence of changes in the interaction of exchange rate, interest rates and inflation. It also examines to what extent one can say that there was a fear of floating. The results indicate that there was a significant change in the dynamic of such variables when moving from a more rigid to a more flexible regime, supporting our original hypothesis. Regarding the fear of floating, the results for Brazil can be seen as inconclusive since from one point of view they do not follow the same pattern of other experiences with exchange regime transition especially with respect to credibility problems where Brazil does not seem to face. On the other hand the results are similar to other experiences with respect to the relevance of the exchange rate as a fundamental instrument of macroeconomic policy since it reveals close links with price (inflation) behavior and interest rate. The fear of floating seems to make sense when we considered the variance decomposition and the impulse-response function analysis using the wholesale price index regardless of the exchange rate regime, even though the result is more pronounced for the floating period and when using the wholesale price index.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos de Almeida Cardoso & Flávio Vilela Vieira, 2004. "Câmbio, Inflação E Juros Na Transição Do Regime Cambial Brasileiro: Uma Análise De Vetores Auto-Regressivos E Causalidade," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 080, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2004:080
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.anpec.org.br/encontro2004/artigos/A04A080.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Killeen, William P. & Lyons, Richard K. & Moore, Michael J., 2006. "Fixed versus flexible: Lessons from EMS order flow," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 551-579, June.
    2. Francisco Eduardo Pires de Souza & Cecília Rutkoski Hoff, 2003. "O Regime Cambial Brasileiro: Flutuação Genuína ou Medo de Flutuação?," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31st Brazilian Economics Meeting] c60, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    3. Joaquim Pinto de Andrade & José Angelo C. A. Divino, 2015. "Optimal Rules for Monetary Policy in Brazil," Discussion Papers 0101, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    4. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2001. "Inflation Targeting in an Open Financially Integrated Emerging Economy: the case of Brazil," Working Papers Series 26, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    6. Mr. Marco Rossi & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 2002/204, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614, Elsevier.
    8. Ilan Goldfajn & Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, 2000. "The Pass-through from Depreciation to Inflation: A Panel Study," Working Papers Series 5, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2001. "A "Vertical" Analysis of Crises and Intervention: Fear of Floating and Ex-ante Problems," NBER Working Papers 8428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, Decembrie.
    11. Calvo, Guillermo A & Vegh, Carlos A, 1995. "Fighting Inflation with High Interest Rates: The Small Open Economy Case under Flexible Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 49-66, February.
    12. Mr. Guillermo Calvo & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1990. "Credibility and the Dynamics of Stabilization Policy: A Basic Framework," IMF Working Papers 1990/110, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Living with the Fear of Floating: An Optimal Policy Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 663-704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
    15. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Denise Côté & Christopher Graham, 2004. "Convergence of Government Bond Yields in the Euro Zone: The Role of Policy Harmonization," Staff Working Papers 04-23, Bank of Canada.
    2. Rybinski, Krzysztof, 1997. "Testing Integration of Macroeconomic Time Series in Transitional Socialist Economies. A Modification of Perron Test," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 30(2-3), pages 127-179.
    3. Carlos Acevedo, 2000. "Mecanismos de transmisión de política monetaria con liberalización financiera: El Salvador en los noventa," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 361-412, octubre-d.
    4. Chan Swee Lean, 2001. "Empirical tests to discern linkages between construction and other economic sectors in Singapore," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 355-363.
    5. Sabuhoro, Jean Bosco & Larue, Bruno, 1997. "The market efficiency hypothesis: The case of coffee and cocoa futures," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 171-184, August.
    6. Philip Bodman, 1997. "The Australian Trade Balance and Current Account: a Time Series Perspective," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 39-57.
    7. Denise Côté & Doug Hostland, 1996. "An Econometric Examination of the Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada," Staff Working Papers 96-7, Bank of Canada.
    8. Tsangyao Chang & WenRong Liu & Steven Caudill, 2004. "A re-examination of Wagner's law for ten countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 577-589.
    9. Nelson WAWIRE, 2017. "Determinants of value added tax revenue in Kenya," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 322-344, September.
    10. Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho, 2001. "Estimando o Produto Potencial Brasileiro: Uma Abordagem de Função de Produção," Working Papers Series 17, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    12. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Leon, Márcia Saraiva, 2003. "Speculative attacks on debts and optimum currency area: a welfare analysis," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 514, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    13. McCallum, Bennett T., 2010. "Is the spurious regression problem spurious?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 321-323, June.
    14. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2010. "Private information, stock markets, and exchange rates," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 186-210, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Foders, Federico & Glismann, Hans H., 1992. "Explaining the Argentine growth paradox: new evidence applying cointegration techniques," Kiel Working Papers 506, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. Richard H. Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2006. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1193-1224, May.
    17. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    18. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 6-30, November.
    19. Lee, Chingnun & Shie, Fu Shuen & Chang, Chiao Yi, 2012. "How close a relationship does a capital market have with other such markets? The case of Taiwan from the Asian financial crisis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 349-362.
    20. Artur C. B. Da Silva Lopes, 1998. "On the 'restricted cointegration test' as a test of the rational expectations hypothesis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 269-278, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:anp:en2004:080. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rodrigo Zadra Armond (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/anpecea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.