The present work examines the exchange regime transition in Brazil (1994 to 2003) based on the hypothesis of the existence of changes in the interaction of exchange rate, interest rates and inflation. It also examines to what extent one can say that there was a fear of floating. The results indicate that there was a significant change in the dynamic of such variables when moving from a more rigid to a more flexible regime, supporting our original hypothesis. Regarding the fear of floating, the results for Brazil can be seen as inconclusive since from one point of view they do not follow the same pattern of other experiences with exchange regime transition especially with respect to credibility problems where Brazil does not seem to face. On the other hand the results are similar to other experiences with respect to the relevance of the exchange rate as a fundamental instrument of macroeconomic policy since it reveals close links with price (inflation) behavior and interest rate. The fear of floating seems to make sense when we considered the variance decomposition and the impulse-response function analysis using the wholesale price index regardless of the exchange rate regime, even though the result is more pronounced for the floating period and when using the wholesale price index.
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Length: Date of creation: 2004 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:anp:en2004:080
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Find related papers by JEL classification: F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
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