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Be Careful! A Short Note on a Possible Bias in (Trade) Structural Change Analysys

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  • Massimo TAMBERI

    ()
    (Universita' Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Economia)

Abstract

I was accustomed to think that the world, in this of "modern economic growth", is becoming less specialized: the invention of new goods is, only partially, a "Schumpeterian" process, in the sense that new goods sometimes replace old ones, but it can also happens that these new goods simply are added to the old ones. Also in modern theoretical literature emerges (at least) the idea that producers use an increasing variety of intermediate goods and that consumers are likely better with more variety of goods in their hands. The process of change in the produced/consumed goods is one of the aspects of the broader spectrum of economic structural change that accompanies economic growth, "structural change" being one of the basic stylized facts of growth according to the Nobel Lecture of Simon Kuznets. In this paper, I will suggest that sector disaggregated data, necessary to study structural change, contain a bias that "hides" this process and causes a drift. By using trade data (because of their higher sector disaggregation richness) I'll first show that there is a tendency for a steady increase in sector concentration. Next, I will argue that this is due to the impossibility to properly register product innovation and finally, through a very rough model and an empirical example of two countries, I will also suggest that this reflects differently in developing and developed countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali in its series Working Papers with number 341.

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Length: 25
Date of creation: May 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:anc:wpaper:341

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Keywords: Economic Growth; International Trade; Structural Change;

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  1. Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 8904, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  2. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  3. Kuznets, Simon, 1971. "Modern Economic Growth: Findings and Reflections," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 1971-2, Nobel Prize Committee.
  4. Masahisa Fujita & Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262561476, December.
  5. Alberto Amurgo-Pacheco, Martha Denisse Pierola, 2007. "Patterns of export diversification in developing countries: intensive and extensive margins," IHEID Working Papers 20-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jul 2007.
  6. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Innovation, Technology Transfer, and the World Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(2), pages 253-66, April.
  7. Robert E. Lucas, 2000. "Some Macroeconomics for the 21st Century," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 159-168, Winter.
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Cited by:
  1. Alberto RUSSO, 2012. "A Stochastic Model of Wealth Accumulation with Class Division," Working Papers 373, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  2. Alessandro STERLACCHINI, 2012. "Patent Oppositions as Competitive Tools: An Analysis of the Major Players in the European Market of White Goods," Working Papers 374, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  3. Simone LENZU & Gabriele TEDESCHI, 2012. "Systemic risk on different interbank network topologies," Working Papers 375, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  4. Fabio FIORILLO & Agnese SACCHI, 2010. "I Want to Free-ride. An Opportunistic View on Decentralization Versus Centralization Problem," Working Papers 346, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  5. Elena AMBROSETTI & Eralba CELA & Tineke FOKKEMA, 2011. "The Remittances Behaviour of the Second Generation in Europe: Altruism or Self-Interest?," Working Papers 368, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  6. Luca RICCETTI, 2011. "A Copula-GARCH Model for Macro Asset Allocation of a Portfolio with Commodities: an Out-of-Sample Analysis," Working Papers 355, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.

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