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E Pluribus Unum: Macroeconomic Modelling for Multi-agent Economies

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  • Assenza, T.

    (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

  • Delli Gatti, D.

    (Catholic University of Milan)

Abstract

From the point of view of the average macroeconomist, agent based modelling has an obvious drawback: It makes impossible to think in aggregate terms. The modeller, in fact, can reconstruct aggregate variables only "from the bottom up" by summing the individual quantities. As a consequence the interpretation of the trasmission mechanism of shocks is somehow arbitrary. We propose a modelling strategy which reduces the dimensionality of an agent based framework by replacing the actual distributional features (in our model: the distribution of financial conditions) with the first and second moments of the distribution itself. The main message is that the difficulty of thinking in macroeconomic terms when dealing with multi-agent economies can be circumvented by means of an appropriate aggregation procedure which we label the Modified-Representative Agent such that the distribution of agents' characteristics can be approximated by (at least) the (first and second) moments of the distribution. The moments of the distribution play the role of macroeconomic variables. We put this strategy at work in a model of the financial accelerator in which firms' heterogeneous degree of financial robustness affect investment in a bankruptcy risk context (à la Greenwald-Stiglitz).

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  • Assenza, T. & Delli Gatti, D., 2012. "E Pluribus Unum: Macroeconomic Modelling for Multi-agent Economies," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-08, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:12-08
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    2. Catalano, Michele & Di Guilmi, Corrado, 2019. "Uncertainty, rationality and complexity in a multi-sectoral dynamic model: The dynamic stochastic generalized aggregation approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 117-144.
    3. Roos, Michael W. M., 2015. "The macroeconomics of radical uncertainty," Ruhr Economic Papers 592, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Sylvain Barde & Sander van Der Hoog, 2017. "An empirical validation protocol for large-scale agent-based models," Working Papers hal-03458672, HAL.
    5. Grilli, Ruggero & Tedeschi, Gabriele & Gallegati, Mauro, 2014. "Bank interlinkages and macroeconomic stability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 72-88.
    6. Davide Bazzana, 2020. "Ageing population and pension system sustainability: reforms and redistributive implications," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(3), pages 971-992, October.
    7. Cristiano CODAGNONE & Giovanni LIVA & Egidijus BARCEVICIUS & Gianluca MISURACA & Luka KLIMAVICIUTE & Michele BENEDETTI & Irene VANINI & Giancarlo VECCHI & Emily RYEN GLOINSON & Katherine STEWART & Sti, 2020. "Assessing the impacts of digital government transformation in the EU: Conceptual framework and empirical case studies," JRC Research Reports JRC120865, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    8. Gualdi, Stanislao & Tarzia, Marco & Zamponi, Francesco & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2015. "Tipping points in macroeconomic agent-based models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 29-61.
    9. Fabio Ghironi, 2018. "Macro needs micro," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(1-2), pages 195-218.
    10. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2019. "More is different ... and complex! the case for agent-based macroeconomics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-37, March.
    11. Severin Reissl, 2021. "Heterogeneous expectations, forecasting behaviour and policy experiments in a hybrid Agent-based Stock-flow-consistent model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 251-299, January.
    12. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Agent-Based Macroeconomics and Classical Political Economy: Some Italian Roots," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 3(3), pages 261-283, November.
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    14. Herbert Dawid & Philipp Harting & Sander Hoog & Michael Neugart, 2019. "Macroeconomics with heterogeneous agent models: fostering transparency, reproducibility and replication," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 467-538, March.
    15. Gallen, Trevor S., 2021. "Predicting and decomposing why representative agent and heterogeneous agent models sometimes diverge," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    16. Ruggero Grilli & Gabriele Tedeschi & Mauro Gallegati, 2015. "Markets connectivity and financial contagion," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 10(2), pages 287-304, October.
    17. Severin Reissl, 2022. "Fiscal multipliers, expectations and learning in a macroeconomic agent‐based model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(4), pages 1704-1729, October.
    18. Tiziana Assenza & Domenico Delli Gatti, 2019. "The financial transmission of shocks in a simple hybrid macroeconomic agent based model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 265-297, March.
    19. Michael W. M. Roos, 2018. "Endogenous Economic Growth, Climate Change and Societal Values: A Conceptual Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(3), pages 995-1028, October.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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