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Does eductive stability imply evolutionary stability?

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  • Hommes, C.H.

    ()
    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Wagener, F.O.O.

    ()
    (University of Amsterdam)

Abstract

This note presents a simple example of a model in which the unique rational expectations (RE)steady state equilibrium is eductively stable in the sense of Guesnerie (2002), but where evolutionary learning, as introduced in Brock and Hommes (1997), does not necessarily converge to the RE steady state price. The example is a Muthian cobweb model where producers have heterogeneous expectations and select forecasting strategies based upon recent realized profits. By means of a simple three types example we show that a locally stable RE fundamental steady state may co-exists with a locally stable two–cycle. We also study the Muthian model with a large number of different producer types, and investigate conditions under which an evolutionary adaptive learning process based upon recent realized profits enforces global convergence to the stable RE steady state and when persistent periodic price fluctuations can arise.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance in its series CeNDEF Working Papers with number 09-10.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:09-10

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References

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  1. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  2. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  3. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2002. "Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-10, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  4. Guesnerie, R., 1999. "Anchoring Economic Predictions in Common Knowledge," DELTA Working Papers 1999-06, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  5. Milgrom, Paul & Roberts, John, 1990. "Rationalizability, Learning, and Equilibrium in Games with Strategic Complementarities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1255-77, November.
  6. Cees Diks & Roy van der Weide, 2003. "Herding, A-synchronous Updating and Heterogeneity in Memory in a CBS," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-103/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  7. Anufriev, M. & Assenza, T. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2008. "Interest Rate Rules with Heterogeneous Expectations," CeNDEF Working Papers 08-08, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  8. Guesnerie, Roger, 1992. "An Exploration of the Eductive Justifications of the Rational-Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1254-78, December.
  9. Cars Hommes & Florian Wagener, 2008. "Complex Evolutionary Systems in Behavioral Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-054/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  10. Binmore, Ken, 1987. "Modeling Rational Players: Part I," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 179-214, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Mikhail Anufriev & Tiziana Assenza & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 0000. "Interest Rate Rules and Macroeconomic Stability under Heterogeneous Expectations," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-040/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  2. Gabriel Desgranges & Stéphane Gauthier, 2014. "Rationalizability and Efficiency in an Asymmetric Cournot Oligopoly," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14028, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  3. George W. Evans & Roger Guesnerie & Bruce McGough, 2010. "Eductive Stability in Real Business Cycle Models," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2010-16, University of Oregon Economics Department.
  4. John Duffy & Te Bao, 2013. "Adaptive vs. Eductive Learning: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 518, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2013.
  5. Anufriev, M. & Assenza, T. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2008. "Interest Rate Rules with Heterogeneous Expectations," CeNDEF Working Papers 08-08, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  6. Nicolò Pecora & Alessandro Spelta, 2013. "Macroeconomic Stability and Heterogeneous Expectations," DEM Working Papers Series 037, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
  7. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.

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