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Testing for a Unit Root with Near-Integrated Volatility

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  • Boswijk, H.P.

    (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

Abstract

This paper considers tests for a unit root when the innovations follow a near-integrated GARCH process. We compare the asymptotic properties of the likelihoodratio statistic with that of the least-squares based Dickey-Fuller statistic. We first useasymptotics where the GARCH variance process is stationary with fixed parameters,and then consider parameter sequences such that the GARCH process converges to adiffusion process. In both cases, we find a substantial asymptotic local power gain ofthe likelihood ratio test for parameter values that imply heavy tails in theunconditional innovation distribution. An empirical application to the term structureof interest rates in the Netherlands illustrates the proposed procedures.
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Suggested Citation

  • Boswijk, H.P., 2000. "Testing for a Unit Root with Near-Integrated Volatility," CeNDEF Working Papers 00-09, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:00-09
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    10. Hansen, Bruce E, 1995. "Regression with Nonstationary Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1113-1132, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alvaro Escribano & J. Ignacio Peña & Pablo Villaplana, 2011. "Modelling Electricity Prices: International Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(5), pages 622-650, October.
    2. Boswijk, H. P. & Zu, Y., 2013. "Testing for Cointegration with Nonstationary Volatility," Working Papers 13/08, Department of Economics, City University London.
    3. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Rahbek, Anders & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2010. "Testing for co-integration in vector autoregressions with non-stationary volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 7-24, September.
    4. Tao, Yubo, 2019. "Limit theory for moderate deviation from Integrated GARCH processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 126-136.
    5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2023. "Information loss in volatility measurement with flat price trading," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(6), pages 2957-2999, June.
    6. H. Peter Boswijk & Yang Zu, 2022. "Adaptive Testing for Cointegration With Nonstationary Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 744-755, April.
    7. Bosco, Bruno & Parisio, Lucia & Pelagatti, Matteo & Baldi, Fabio, 2007. "A Robust Multivariate Long Run Analysis of European Electricity Prices," International Energy Markets Working Papers 7438, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    8. Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2013. "Unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 4, pages 61-94, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Skrobotov, Anton, 2020. "Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 58, pages 96-141.
    10. Joakim Westerlund, 2013. "A computationally convenient unit root test with covariates, conditional heteroskedasticity and efficient detrending," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 477-495, July.
    11. Brendan K. Beare, 2018. "Unit Root Testing with Unstable Volatility," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 816-835, November.
    12. Matteo Pelagatti & Bruno Bosco & Lucia Parisio & Fabio Baldi, 2007. "A Robust Multivariate Long Run Analysis of European Electricity Prices," Working Papers 2007.103, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    13. Bruno Bosco & Lucia Parisio & Matteo Pelagatti & Fabio Baldi, 2010. "Long-run relations in european electricity prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 805-832.
    14. Nikolay Gospodinov & Ye Tao, 2011. "Bootstrap Unit Root Tests in Models with GARCH(1,1) Errors," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 379-405, August.
    15. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Antonio Rubia, 2004. "On The Small Sample Properties Of Dickey Fuller And Maximum Likelihood Unit Root Tests On Discrete-Sampled Short-Term Interest Rates," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-11, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    16. Nikolaos Kourogenis, 2015. "Polynomial Trends, Nonstationary Volatility and the Eicker-White Asymptotic Variance Estimator," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(3), pages 1675-1680.
    17. Brandan K. Beare, 2008. "Unit Root Testing with Unstable Volatility," Economics Series Working Papers 2008-WO6, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    18. Vassilis Polimenis & Ioannis Neokosmidis, 2019. "Non-stationary dividend-price ratios," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(7), pages 552-567, December.
    19. Gospodinov, Nikolay, 2008. "Asymptotic and bootstrap tests for linearity in a TAR-GARCH(1,1) model with a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 146-161, September.
    20. A. Szimayer & R. Maller, 2004. "Testing for Mean Reversion in Processes of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Type," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 95-113, May.

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