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Public Debt Management & Fiscal Sustainability in Italy

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Author Info
Angela I. Uwakwe () (;Cardiff University; UK)
Abstract

This paper examines the government finances for Italy to determine if they satisfy the Inter-temporal Budget Constraint (IBC) especially since post-Maastricht. Italy met the convergence criteria in order to be accepted as an EMU country. Arghyrou and Luintel (2005) examine the finances of Italy up to the pre-Maastricht convergence period and find that the finances of Italy showed weak form sustainability demonstrating a Maastricht effect. Standard assumptions have been that Italy’s true position of un-sustainability would be inherent post-Maastricht. This paper examines this issue and finds: (i) that the debt to GDP series shows that the finances of Italy are un-sustainable; (ii) however the government revenue and expenditure show weak form sustainability. This paper also finds a downward trend of the government debt to GDP ratio and a convergence of the government revenue and expenditure in recent times. This implies that the finances of Italy satisfy the IBC and indeed continue to maintain the result of weak sustainability even post-Maastricht.

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File URL: http://orp.aiub.edu/FileZone/OtherFiles/orpadmin-8589862653639447058/AIUB-BUS-ECON-2008-20.pdf
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Paper provided by American International University-Bangladesh, Office of Research and Publications (ORP) in its series AIUB Bus Econ Working Paper Series with number AIUB-BUS-ECON-2008-20.

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Length: 29
Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision: Jun 2008
Handle: RePEc:aiu:abewps:75

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  1. Vito Polito & Mike Wickens, 2005. " Measuring Fiscal Sustainability," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0503, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Ahmed, Shaghil & Rogers, John H., 1995. "Government budget deficits and trade deficits Are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 351-374, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Arghyrou, Michael G & Kul B Luintel, 2003. "Government Solvency: Revisiting some EMU Countries," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 8, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Sebastian Edwards, 2002. "Debt Relief and Fiscal Sustainability," NBER Working Papers 8939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Michael G. Arghyrou, 2004. "Debt Sustainability, Structural Breaks and Non-linear Fiscal Adjustment: A Testing Application to Greek Fiscal Policy," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 04-01, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Carlos Díaz Alvarado & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ugo Panizza, 2004. "Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries with an Application to Ecuador," RES Working Papers 4371, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  9. Merih Uctum & Michael Wickens, 1996. "Debt and deficit ceilings, and sustainability of fiscal policies: an intertemporal analysis," Research Paper 9615, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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