Estimating The Impacts Of Differing Price-Risk Management Strategies On The Net Income Of Salinas Valley Lettuce Producers: A Stochastic Simulation Approach
AbstractWhile government safety-net programs are used to mitigate the price risk for commodity producers, limited programs exist for specialty crop producers. Specialty crop producers utilize forward contracts to reduce downside price risk. In order to estimate the method of price-risk management, if any, that is preferable to selling at market determined prices, a stochastic simulation model was constructed. The completed simulation model was used to estimate probability distributions for Salinas Valley net income under different pricing scenarios. Probabilities of reaching various net income thresholds were compared. Results indicate that Salinas Valley lettuce producers should maximize profitability by using forward contracts.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Western Agricultural Economics Association in its series 2005 Annual Meeting, July 6-8, 2005, San Francisco, California with number 36310.
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty;
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