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Can Economic Growth Be Sustained? A Post-Malthusian Perspective

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  • Ruttan, Vernon W.

Abstract

During the late 1990's, a spurt of growth in output and productivity led the business press, and some economists, to proclaim that the economy had entered a new era in which the old rules that governed cyclical and secular growth in the past no longer obtained. In the paper I present the results of a two sector economic growth model that demonstrates that as the share of the goods producing sectors (agriculture and manufacturing) continue to decline the service sector will have to bear almost the entire burden of sustaining productivity growth in the U.S. economy. A clear implication is that the rate of productivity growth, and the rate of output, will regress toward the rate of growth in its least productive sectors.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics in its series Staff Papers with number 14276.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ags:umaesp:14276

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Keywords: International Development;

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References

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  1. Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2000. "Raising the Speed Limit: US Economic Growth in the Information Age," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 261, OECD Publishing.
  2. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2232, David K. Levine.
  3. Vernon Ruttan, 1998. "The new growth theory and development economics: A survey," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 1-26.
  4. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
  5. Robert E. Lucas, 2000. "Some Macroeconomics for the 21st Century," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 159-168, Winter.
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Cited by:
  1. Tiago Sequeira & Ana Balc√£o Reis, 2004. "Human Capital Composition, R&D and the Increasing Role of Services," Development and Comp Systems 0408011, EconWPA.

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