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Evaluating The Hedging Potential Of The Lean Hog Futures Contract

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  • Ditsch, Mark W.
  • Leuthold, Raymond M.
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    Abstract

    The lean hog futures contract is replacing the live hog futures contract at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange beginning with the February 1997 contract. The lean hog futures will be cash settled based on a broad-based lean hog price index, eliminating terminal markets from the price discovery process. Using this index over a twenty-month period as a proxy for the lean hog futures price, this paper compares the hedging effectiveness of the live hog futures contract to the hedging potential of the lean hog futures contract for cash live hogs as well as four cash meat cuts. Frozen pork bellies futures are also examined for the cash meats. Both long-term and short-term hedges are simulated, using the minimum-variance approach, which utilizes only unconditional information, and the Myers-Thompson approach that incorporates conditional information. The results show that the lean hog futures should perform better than either the live hog or the frozen pork bellies futures as a hedging instrument for Omaha cash hogs and cash loins. The strongest evidence of this is for the short-term hedging of cash hogs. For the other three meats, no futures contract demonstrated a clear hedging advantage.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14769
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics in its series ACE OFOR Reports with number 14769.

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    Date of creation: 1996
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:uiucao:14769

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    Keywords: Marketing;

    References

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    1. Hayenga, Marvin L. & Jiang, B. & Kweon, J. H. & Lence, Sergio H., 1994. "Cross Hedging Wholesale Beef and Pork Products," Staff General Research Papers 11399, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:
    1. Wang, Qizhi & Chidmi, Benaissa, 2009. "Cotton Price Risk Management across Different Countries," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46762, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    2. Manfredo, Mark R. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2003. "Minimum Variance Hedging And The Encompassing Principle: Assessing The Effectiveness Of Futures Hedges," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22247, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Lien, Donald & Tse, Yiu Kuen, 2006. "A survey on physical delivery versus cash settlement in futures contracts," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 15-29.
    4. Christian Dunis & Pierre Lequeux, 2000. "Intraday data and hedging efficiency in interest spread trading," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 332-352.
    5. Frank, Julieta & Gomez, Miguel I. & Kunda, Eugene L. & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "Cash Settlement of Lean Hog Futures Contracts Reexamined," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37611, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    6. Sanders, Dwight R. & Greer, Tracy D., 2002. "Hedging Spot Corn: An Examination Of The Minneapolis Grain Exchange'S Cash Settled Corn Contract," 2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri 19064, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.

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