IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/ugeofs/103947.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Principal Component Analysis of Crop Yield Response to Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • Cai, Ruohong
  • Bergstrom, John C.
  • Mullen, Jeffrey D.
  • Wetzstein, Michael E.
  • Shurley, W. Donald

Abstract

The objective of this study is to compare the effects of climate change on crop yields across different regions. A Principal Component Regression (PCR) model is developed to estimate the historical relationships between weather and crop yields for corn, soybeans, cotton, and peanuts for several northern and southern U.S. states. Climate change projection data from three climate models are applied to the estimated PCR model to forecast crop yield response. Instead of directly using weather variables as predictor variables, the PCR model uses weather indices transformed from original weather variables by the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) approach. A climate change impact index (CCII) is developed to compare climate change effects across different regions. The key contribution of our study is in identifying a different climate change effects in crop yields in different U.S. states. Specifically, our results indicate that future warmer weather will have a negative impact for southern U.S. counties, while it has insignificant impact for northern U.S. counties in the next four decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Cai, Ruohong & Bergstrom, John C. & Mullen, Jeffrey D. & Wetzstein, Michael E. & Shurley, W. Donald, 2011. "Principal Component Analysis of Crop Yield Response to Climate Change," Faculty Series 103947, University of Georgia, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ugeofs:103947
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.103947
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/103947/files/FS11-01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.103947?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crop Production/Industries;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ugeofs:103947. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/daugaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.