IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uerstb/156817.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Distribution of Daily Changes in Commodity Futures Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Gordon, J. Douglas

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Gordon, J. Douglas, 1985. "The Distribution of Daily Changes in Commodity Futures Prices," Technical Bulletins 156817, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uerstb:156817
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.156817
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/156817/files/tb1702.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.156817?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hellwig, Martin F., 1982. "Rational expectations equilibrium with conditioning on past prices: A mean-variance example," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 279-312, April.
    2. Richard E. Just & Gordon C. Rausser, 1981. "Commodity Price Forecasting with Large-Scale Econometric Models and the Futures Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(2), pages 197-208.
    3. Samuelson, Paul A, 1976. "Is Real-World Price a Tale Told by the Idiot of Chance?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(1), pages 120-123, February.
    4. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    5. Rausser, Gordon C & Carter, Colin, 1983. "Futures Market Efficiency in the Soybean Complex," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 469-478, August.
    6. Gray, Roger W., 1960. "The Characteristic Bias in Some Thin Futures Markets," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 1(3), pages 1-17.
    7. Mann, Jitendar S. & Heifner, Richard G., 1976. "The Distribution of Shortrun Commodity Price Movements," Technical Bulletins 158107, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    8. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    9. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Rutledge, D J S, 1976. "A Note on the Variability of Futures Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(1), pages 118-120, February.
    11. Roger W. Gray, 1961. "The Search for a Risk Premium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69, pages 250-250.
    12. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
    13. Raymond M. Leuthold, 1974. "The Price Performance on the Futures Market of a Nonstorable Commodity: Live Beef Cattle," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 56(2), pages 271-279.
    14. William G. Tomek & Roger W. Gray, 1970. "Temporal Relationships Among Prices on Commodity Futures Markets: Their Allocative and Stabilizing Roles," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 52(3), pages 372-380.
    15. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    16. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Rentzler, Joel, 1984. "Intra-Day Tests of the Efficiency of the Treasury Bill Futures Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(1), pages 129-137, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Du, Wen, 2004. "International Market Integration Under Wto: Evidence In The Price Behaviors Of Chinese And Us Wheat Futures," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20115, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Schaub, James & McArthur, W..C. & Hacklander, Duane & Glauber, Joseph & Leath, Mack & Doty, Harry, 1988. "The U.S. Soybean Industry," Agricultural Economic Reports 305423, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Tabesh, Hamid, 1987. "Hedging price risk to soybean producers with futures and options: a case study," ISU General Staff Papers 1987010108000010306, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Kidd, Willis V. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2004. "Why have the returns to technical analysis decreased?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 159-176.
    5. Wu, Feng & Guan, Zhengfei, 2009. "The Volatility Spillover Effects and Optimal Hedging Strategy in the Corn Market," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49453, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Hall, Joyce A. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Irwin, Scott H., 1989. "The Distribution of Futures Prices: A Test of the Stable Paretian and Mixture of Normals Hypotheses," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 105-116, March.
    7. Sherrick, Bruce J. & Irwin, Scott H. & Forster, D. Lynn, 1990. "Nonstationarity Of Soybean Futures Price Distributions: Option-Based Evidence," 1990 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Vancouver, Canada 270920, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Górska, Anna & Krawiec, Monika, 2017. "Analiza efektywności informacyjnej w formie słabej na rynkach „soft commodities” z wykorzystaniem wybranych testów statystycznych," Problems of World Agriculture / Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, vol. 17(32, Part ), September.
    9. Myers, Robert J. & Hanson, Steven D., 1991. "Pricing Commodity Options When The Underlying Futures Price Exhibits Time-Varying Volatility," 1991 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Manhattan, Kansas 271194, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Heifner, Richard G. & Wright, Bruce H., 1989. "Potentials for Substituting Farmers' Use of Futures and Options for Farm Programs," Agricultural Economic Reports 308136, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    11. Dannemann, Tebbe & Prehn, Soren & Brümmer, Bernhard, 2014. "Optionshandel Und Maispreisvolatilitat: Does the Tail Wag the Dog?," 54th Annual Conference, Goettingen, Germany, September 17-19, 2014 187371, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    12. Myers, Robert J., 1994. "Time Series Econometrics and Commodity Price Analysis: A Review," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(02), pages 1-15, August.
    13. Duncan, Steven Scott, 1988. "The relevant forecast of variance of income for marketing decisions under uncertainty," ISU General Staff Papers 198801010800009839, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Garcia, Philip & Hudson, Michael A. & Waller, Mark L., 1988. "The Pricing Efficiency Of Agricultural Futures Markets: An Analysis Of Previous Research Results," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 1-12, July.
    15. Monika Krawiec & Anna Górska, 2021. "Are soft commodities markets affected by the Halloween effect?," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 67(12), pages 491-499.
    16. Krzysztof Borowski & Malgorzata Lukasik, 2015. "Analysis of Selected Seasonality Effects in the Following Agricultural Markets: Corn, Wheat, Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar, Cotton and Soybeans," Eurasian Journal of Business and Management, Eurasian Publications, vol. 3(2), pages 12-37.
    17. Lei, Li-Fen, 1992. "Using futures and option contracts to manage price and quantity risk: A case of corn farmers in central Iowa," ISU General Staff Papers 1992010108000011326, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    18. Myers, Robert J., 1992. "Time Series Econometrics and Commodity Price Analysis," 1992 Conference (36th), February 10-13, 1992, Canberra, Australia 146550, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    19. Fackler, Paul L., 1986. "Futures Price Volatility: Modeling Non-Constant Variance," 1986 Annual Meeting, July 27-30, Reno, Nevada 278172, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rausser, Gordon C & Carter, Colin, 1983. "Futures Market Efficiency in the Soybean Complex," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 469-478, August.
    2. Tomek, William G., 1996. "Commodity Futures Prices As Forecasts," Working Papers 127901, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    3. Skold, Karl Durwood, 1989. "The integration of alternative information systems: an application to the Hogs and Pigs report," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010239, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Garcia, Philip & Hudson, Michael A. & Waller, Mark L., 1988. "The Pricing Efficiency of Agricultural Futures Markets: An Analysis of Previous Research Results," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 119-130, July.
    5. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Tabesh, Hamid, 1987. "Hedging price risk to soybean producers with futures and options: a case study," ISU General Staff Papers 1987010108000010306, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    8. Roland Rothenstein, 2018. "Quantification of market efficiency based on informational-entropy," Papers 1812.02371, arXiv.org.
    9. Funk, Samuel M. & Zook, James E. & Featherstone, Allen M., 2008. "Chicago Board of Trade Ethanol Contract Efficiency," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6811, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    10. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034, Decembrie.
    11. Detlef Seese & Christof Weinhardt & Frank Schlottmann (ed.), 2008. "Handbook on Information Technology in Finance," International Handbooks on Information Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-49487-4, November.
    12. Turvey, Calum G., 2001. "Random Walks And Fractal Structures In Agricultural Commodity Futures Prices," Working Papers 34151, University of Guelph, Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    13. Chen, Gang & Roberts, Matthew C. & Roe, Brian E., 2005. "Managing Livestock Feed Cost Risks Using Futures and Options," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19399, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    14. Gustavo Silva Araujo & Ricardo Alves Carmo Ribeiro, 2018. "Is Petrobras Options Market Efficient? A Study Using The Delta-Gamma Neutral Strategy," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 126, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    15. Alexander S. Sangare, 2005. "Efficience des marchés : un siècle après Bachelier," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 81(4), pages 107-132.
    16. Klaus Schredelseker, 2012. "Finanzkrise — Mitschuld der Theorie?," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 64(8), pages 833-845, December.
    17. Shi, Leilei, 2006. "Does security transaction volume–price behavior resemble a probability wave?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 366(C), pages 419-436.
    18. Lawrence Choo & Todd R. Kaplan & Ro’i Zultan, 2019. "Information aggregation in Arrow–Debreu markets: an experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 22(3), pages 625-652, September.
    19. Roll, Richard & Schwartz, Eduardo & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2014. "Trading activity in the equity market and its contingent claims: An empirical investigation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 13-35.
    20. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uerstb:156817. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ersgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.