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Selected Trade Agreements and Implications for U.S. Agriculture

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Author Info

  • Wainio, John
  • Gehlhar, Mark J.
  • Dyck, John H.

Abstract

Since 2001, the United States has concluded negotiations with 13 countries, resulting in 8 trade agreements (TAs). Three additional agreements have been negotiated but not yet ratified by Congress, as of March 2011. Other countries have become increasingly active in negotiating their own trade pacts. This proliferation of TAs between key U.S. trading partners and competitors may have raised concerns among U.S. exporters, whose share in established markets could be eroded by such deals. In this study, ERS examines how recently concluded TAs between ASEAN (Southeast Asia) countries and China and Australia/New Zealand, as well as pending TAs between the United States and Korea, Colombia, and Panama, will likely affect U.S. agricultural trade. Model results suggest that TAs between ASEAN countries and China and ASEAN countries and Australia/New Zealand would result in moderate losses to U.S. agricultural exports of about $350 million to those countries, but losses would be partially offset by gains in other markets. U.S. agricultural exports to Korea would expand by an estimated $1.9 billion per year if the U.S. TA with Korea were implemented. The U.S.-Colombia TA would result in an estimated $370 million in additional U.S. exports per year. U.S. exports would realize smaller gains of about $50 million per year under the pact with Panama. Empirical results confirm theoretical findings that trade created under TAs exceeds trade diverted, but that results depend on the specific circumstances of each agreement.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service in its series Economic Research Report with number 102754.

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Date of creation: Apr 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:102754

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Related research

Keywords: market access; free trade agreements; tariffs; trade agreements; trade creation; trade diversion; trade promotion agreements; GTAP model.; International Relations/Trade;

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References

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  1. Caroline Freund & Emanuel Ornelas, 2009. "Regional trade agreements," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 28697, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Jacinto F. Fabiosa & Dermot J. Hayes & Fengxia Dong, 2007. "Impact of the South Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement on the U.S. Livestock Sector," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 07-wp455, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  3. Francois, Joseph & Bradley McDonald, 1996. "Liberalization and Capital Accumulation in the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 310, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  4. Yinhua Mai & Philip Adams & Mingtai Fan & Ronglin Li & Zhaoyang Zheng, 2005. "Modelling the Potential Benefits of an Australia-China free Trade Agreement," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-153, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  5. Joseph Francois & Hanna Norberg & Miriam Manchin & Annette Pelkmans Balaoing, 2009. "Trade Impact Assessment (Trade SIA) of an EU-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement," IIDE Discussion Papers 20090801, Institue for International and Development Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
  2. Jones, Keithly G. & Blayney, Donald P., 2012. "Implications of the South Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement on South Korean Dairy Product Imports," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124823, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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