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Estimation of supply response in CAPRI

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  • Jansson, Torbjorn
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    Abstract

    The primary objective of this paper is to estimate behavioural parameters of the quadratic regional supply models in the modelling system CAPRI, using the time series data in the CAPRI database. A secondary objective is to replace the constant yields of the original model by functions that depend on input use. Due to lack of statistical robustness, the second objective is not achieved, thus yields remain constant. A Bayesian highest posterior density estimator is developed to address the primary objective. After discarding regions with insufficient data, parameters for up to 23 crop production activities with related inputs, outputs, prices and behavioural functions are estimated for 165 regions in EU-15. The results are systematically compared to the outcomes of other studies. For crop aggregates (e.g. cereals, oilseeds etc.) on the level of nations, the estimated own price elasticities of supply are found to be in a plausible range. On a regional level and for individual crops, the picture is much more diverse. Whether the regional results are plausible or not is difficult to judge, since no other study of similar regional and product coverage is known to the author.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57030
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 57030.

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    Date of creation: 2007
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:ubfred:57030

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    Web page: http://www.ilr1.uni-bonn.de/
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    Related research

    Keywords: Bayesian estimation; errors-in-variables; PMP; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Q11; C32;

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    1. Guyomard, Herve & Baudry, Marc & Carpentier, Alain, 1996. "Estimating Crop Supply Response in the Presence of Farm Programmes: Application to the CAP," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 401-20.
    2. Griliches, Zvi & Ringstad, Vidar, 1970. "Error-in-the-Variables Bias in Nonlinear Contexts," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 38(2), pages 368-70, March.
    3. Thomas Heckelei & Hendrik Wolff, 2003. "Estimation of constrained optimisation models for agricultural supply analysis based on generalised maximum entropy," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 27-50, March.
    4. Rulon D. Pope & Richard E. Just, 2002. "Random Profits and Duality," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(1), pages 1-7.
    5. Lansink, Alfons Oude & Peerlings, Jack, 1996. "Modelling the New EU Cereals and Oilseeds Regime in the Netherlands," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 23(2), pages 161-78.
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