This paper presents a general overview on the World Agricultural Trade Simulation System WATSIM, the international trade modelling system of the Institute for Agricultural Policy at Bonn University. The system consists of two submodels, dealing with two major aspects of agricultural world markets: In the medium term the impacts of changes in agricultural policies on regional and international markets are of major interest and hence are stressed in the Medium-Term Policy Simulation Model. Developments in natural and socioÂeconomic variables become even more important for supply and demand of agricultural products in the longer run, depicted in the Long-Term Shift Factor Simulation Model. Before presenting the features of the two sub-models, the main characteristics of the system are briefly discussed, pointing out the importance of using both the database and the partial equilibrium module jointly. Dieses Diskussionspapier gibt einen kurzen Uberblick uber das World Agricultural Trade Simulation System WATSIM, das Handelsmodellsystem des Instituts fur Agrarpolitik der Universitat Bonn. Die beiden Sub-Modelle decken in ihrer zeitlichen und inhaltlichen Differenzierung zwei der wesentlichen Fragestellungen im Bereich der landwirtschaftlichen Weltmarkte ab: Wahrend mittelfristig der Einfluss veranderter Agrarpolitik im Vordergrund steht und deshalb Kern des Medium-Term Policy Simulation Model ist, gewinnen insbesondere auf langere Sicht Veranderungen naturlicher und soziookonomischer Rahmenbedingungen fur die Entwicklung auf den landwirtschaftlichen Markten an Bedeutung. Sie werden im Long-Term Shift Factor Simulation Model dargestellt. Bevor die Besonderheiten der beiden Sub-Modelle beschrieben werden, werden die wesentlichen Charakteristika des Modellsystems in Kurze dargestellt, wobei auf die Bedeutung der gemeinsamen Nutzung von Datenbasis und zentralem Modul zur Bestimmung des partialen Gleichgewichts durch beide Sub-Modelle hingewiesen wird.
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Paper provided by University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number
18788.
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