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Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the December 2007 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline

Author

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  • Richardson, James W.
  • Outlaw, Joe L.
  • Knapek, George M.
  • Raulston, J. Marc
  • Herbst, Brian K.
  • Fumasi, Roland J.
  • Anderson, David P.
  • Bryant, Henry L.
  • Klose, Steven L.
  • Zimmel, Peter

Abstract

The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 (2002 Farm Bill) on representative crop, dairy, and livestock operations are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2007-2012 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate agricultural operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: • Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms. • Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) December 2007 Baseline. The FLIPSIM policy simulation model incorporates the historical risk faced by agricultural producers for prices and production. This report presents the results of the December 2007 Baseline in a risk context using selected simulated probabilities and ranges for annual net cash farm income values. The probability of a farm experiencing a negative ending cash balance and the probability of a farm losing real net worth are included as indicators of the cash flow and equity risks facing producers through the year 2012. This report is organized into ten sections. The first section summarizes the process used to develop the representative farms and the key assumptions utilized for the farm level analysis. The second section summarizes the FAPRI December 2007 Baseline and the policy and price assumptions used for the representative farm analyses. The third through sixth sections present the results of the simulation analyses for feed grain, wheat, cotton, and rice farms. The seventh and eighth sections summarize simulation results for dairy and cattle. Two appendices constitute the final sections of the report. Appendix A provides tables to summarize the physical and financial characteristics for each of the representative farms. Appendix B provides the names of producers, land grant faculty, and industry leaders who cooperated in the panel interview process to develop the representative farms.

Suggested Citation

  • Richardson, James W. & Outlaw, Joe L. & Knapek, George M. & Raulston, J. Marc & Herbst, Brian K. & Fumasi, Roland J. & Anderson, David P. & Bryant, Henry L. & Klose, Steven L. & Zimmel, Peter, 2007. "Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the December 2007 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline," Working Papers 37977, Texas A&M University, Agricultural and Food Policy Center.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:tamfwp:37977
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.37977
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    Cited by:

    1. Adhikari, Shyam & Knight, Thomas O. & Belasco, Eric J., 2013. "Yield Guarantees and the Producer Welfare Benefits of Crop Insurance," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-15, April.
    2. Adhikari, Shyam & Knight, Thomas O. & Belasco, Eric J., 2012. "Evaluation of Crop Insurance Yield Guarantees and Producer Welfare with Upward-Trending Yields," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Anderson, David & Anderson, John D. & Sawyer, Jason, 2008. "Impact of the Ethanol Boom on Livestock and Dairy Industries: What Are They Going to Eat?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 573-579, August.
    4. Herbst, Brian K. & Anderson, David P. & Outlaw, Joe L. & Richardson, James W., 2010. "Relative Profitability of Dairy Farms in a High Feed Cost Environment," 2010 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2010, Orlando, Florida 56440, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

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