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Economic Growth And Energy Consumption: A Sur Regression Model Application In Brazil For Several Sources Of Fuel

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  • KAMOGAWA, LUIZ FERNANDO OHARA
  • SHIROTA, RICARDO
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    Abstract

    Apesar de uma série argumentos teóricos e evidências empíricas demonstrarem que a partir de certos níveis de renda ocorre a chamada EKC (Environmental Kuznets Curve), i.e., uma relação em “U” invertido entre renda e degradação ambiental (ou consumo dos recursos naturais) estudos aplicados demonstraram que para o caso do consumo de energia no Brasil, esta relação não se verifica. A melhoria na qualidade ambiental poderia, no entanto, estar ocorrendo pela troca de uma matriz energética mais intensiva na emissão de poluentes por uma menos agressiva. Para verificar este efeito foram estimadas várias EKC’s para diferentes tipos de fonte primárias de energia (petróleo, álcool de cana-de-açúcar, gás natural, carvão mineral e vegetal, hidroeletricidade residencial e industrial e lenha). Como a princípio as demandas são correlacionadas entre si, foi utilizado um modelo de regressão do tipo SUR (Seemingly Unrelated Regressions). O resultado obtido confirma a hipótese de que as funções são correlacionadas contemporaneamente e que o nível de consumo da maioria das fontes de energia é crescente em função da renda (algumas com elasticidade também crescente). Outros resultados extraídos indicam que a participação das fontes renováveis tende a decair ao longo do processo de crescimento econômico; e, há um aumento exponencial nas emissões de carbono no longo-prazo (tanto originário de fontes renováveis quanto não-renováveis). ----------------------------------------------------- Although some theoretical and empirical evidences show that under some level of income the relationship between income and the use of natural resources and environmental quality is inverted U-shaped (the well know EKC-Environmental Kuznets Curve), applied studies have shown that for the case of per capita energy consumption in Brazil the EKC doesn’t applies. However, an improvement on environmental quality would be occurring be the substitution of the energy matrix to another one less intensive on pollutants. Objecting the extraction of this effect it had been done the estimation of several EKC’s for different sources of fuel (petroleum, sugar-cane alcohol, natural gas, mineral and vegetal coal, residential and industrial hydroelectricity and wood). Once those sources of energy demand are, by substitution, correlated, it had been used the econometrical technique of the regression by SUR (Seemingly Unrelated Regressors). The final result had shown what was expected: the different energy sources are contemporaneously correlated and they are in most part positively correlated with income, actually some of then have increasing elasticity on income. Some simulations done indicates that the percent participation of the renewable sources of energy is decreasing along economic growth; and, the carbon emissions is exponential increasing on long-run (either renewable and non-renewable).

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administracao e Sociologia Rural (SOBER) in its series 44th Congress, July 23-27, 2006, Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil with number 148465.

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    Date of creation: 2006
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:sobr06:148465

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    Web page: http://www.sober.org.br/
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    Related research

    Keywords: EKC (Environmental Kuznets Curve); Consumo de Energia; Emissão de Carbono; Crescimento Econômico; SUR; EKC (Environmental Kuznets Curve); Energy Consumption; Carbon Emissions; Economiv Growth; SUR model; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

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    1. Selden Thomas M. & Song Daqing, 1994. "Environmental Quality and Development: Is There a Kuznets Curve for Air Pollution Emissions?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 147-162, September.
    2. Gene M. Grossman & Alan B. Krueger, 1994. "Economic Growth and the Environment," NBER Working Papers 4634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Stern, David I., 2004. "The Rise and Fall of the Environmental Kuznets Curve," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1419-1439, August.
    4. Tsay, Wen-Jen, 2004. "Testing for contemporaneous correlation of disturbances in seemingly unrelated regressions with serial dependence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 69-76, April.
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