Perspectivas De Consumo De Carne Bovina No Brasil
Abstract
A pecuária nacional nas últimas décadas vem apresentado constantes taxas de crescimento, em termos de produção, exportação e consumo. O Brasil possui um mercado interno potencial para o consumo de alimentos, principalmente para a carne bovina. Sua demanda está ligada a vários fatores, como preços, qualidade, aspectos nutricionais, preferência, gosto e, principalmente, a restrição orçamentária, ou seja, a renda. Pelo lado do mercado externo, o país possui largo mercado comprador, mas em alguns mercados acaba enfrento problemas de restrições comerciais, somado aos problemas como a taxa de câmbio, o que impacta em alguns casos em problemas como excesso de oferta. Observando as taxas de crescimento da produção de carne bovina no Brasil, nota-se que a produção cresce a uma taxa maior que o consumo per capta. Assim, este trabalho analisa um problema sério que poderá no futuro atingir o setor carne bovina brasileiro, que é o excesso do produto no mercado interno nos próximos anos. Neste contexto, foram criados cenários com diferentes taxas de crescimento da renda per capta e da produção, com o objetivo de estimar a produção, consumo e possível excedente que poderá ocorrer no mercado interno de acordo com cada cenário apresentado. No cenário de extremo pessimismo (menores taxas de crescimento de produção e renda) o excedente de produção chega a 58,26% e no de extremo otimismo (maiores taxas) atinge 258,7%. Esta análise poderá contribuir para uma série de impactos na cadeia produtiva, inclusive para uma possível queda do preço do boi gordo e da carne. --------------------------------------------------The national cattle production in the last decades comes presented constants growth taxes, in production terms, export and consumption. Brazil has a potential domestic market for food consumption, mainly for the beef meat. Its demand is connected to several factors, as prices, quality, nutritional aspects, preferences, taste and, mainly, the budget restriction, that is, the income. On the side of the external market, the country possesses release market buyer, but in some markets it ends face problems of commercial restrictions, added to the problems as the exchange rate, which impact in some cases in problems as supply excess. Observing the taxes of growth of the production of bovine meat in Brazil, it is noticed that the production grows to a larger tax than the domestic consumption. Therefore, this work analyzes a serious problem that it will be able to in the future to reach the Brazilian beef meat section, that it is the excess of the product in the domestic market in the next years. In this context, sceneries were created with different taxes of growth of the income per head and of the production, with the objective of esteeming the production, consumption and possible surplus that it can happen at the domestic market in agreement with each presented scenery. In the scenery of end pessimism (smaller taxes of production growth and income) the production surplus arrives to 58,26% and in the one of end optimism (larger taxes) it reaches 258,7%. This analysis can contribute to a series of impacts in the productive chain, besides for a possible fall of the price of the cattle and of the beef meat.Download Info
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Paper provided by Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administracao e Sociologia Rural (SOBER) in its series 46th Congress, July 20-23, 2008, Rio Branco, Acre, Brasil with number 109752.Length:
Date of creation: Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ags:sbrfsr:109752
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Web page: http://www.sober.org.br/
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Keywords: carne bovina; previsão e consumo; Beef meat; forecast and consumption; Livestock Production/Industries;References
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