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Efeitos De Curto E Longo Prazos De Choques Na Taxa De Câmbio Real Sobre O Saldo Da Balança Comercial Agropecuária Brasileira

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  • Scalco, Paulo Roberto
  • Carvalho, Henrique Duarte
  • Campos, Antonio Carvalho
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    Abstract

    O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar os efeitos de longo e curto prazos de choques na taxa de câmbio real sobre o saldo da balança comercial agropecuária brasileira. O procedimento metodológico empregado foi a análise multivariada descrita em Johansen (1988 e 1991) apud Hamilton (1994). Os resultados indicam que existe uma relação de longo prazo entre a depreciação na taxa de câmbio real e o saldo da balança comercial. Verifica-se que, no longo prazo, um aumento de 1,0 % da taxa de câmbio leva a uma expansão de 2,10 % no saldo da balança comercial. Esse resultado está consistente com a condição de Marshall-Lerner que afirma: no longo prazo, o efeito volume deve superar o efeito preço, promovendo, assim, um aumento no saldo da balança comercial. Entretanto, no curto prazo, rejeita-se a hipótese de existência da Curva J, em que o saldo da balança comercial pioraria num primeiro instante, e, apenas, melhoraria depois de transcorrido um determinado tempo. Assim, pode-se concluir que depreciações na taxa de câmbio real que visem aumentar as exportações do setor agropecuário brasileiro, seriam bem sucedidas sob o ponto de vista de que não afetariam negativamente o saldo da balança comercial no curto prazo.----------------------------------------------The objective of this study is to analyze short and long run effects of changes in the real exchange rate on the trade balance of the Brazilian agricultural sector. The methodological procedures involves the multivariate analysis as described in Johansen (1988 e 1991) apud Hamilton (1994). The results indicate that exist a positive long run relationship between depreciation of the Brazilian real exchange rate and the agricultural trade balance. In the long run, a depreciation of one percent in the real exchange rate increases the agricultural trade balance in 2.10 %. This result is consistent with the Marshall-Lerner condition which states that the volume effect must overcome the price effect in the long run, promoting in this way an improvement in the agricultural trade balance. However, in the short run, the existence of the J-Curve is rejected, i.e., the agricultural trade balance does not decline just following the depreciation and only would improve after some period of time. Thus, the conclusion is that depreciation of real exchange rate would be successful in order to increase Brazilian agricultural exports under the view that this change would not reduce the agricultural trade balance in the short run.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administracao e Sociologia Rural (SOBER) in its series 46th Congress, July 20-23, 2008, Rio Branco, Acre, Brasil with number 109536.

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    Date of creation: Jul 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:sbrfsr:109536

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    Web page: http://www.sober.org.br/
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    Keywords: Condição de Marshall-Lerner; Curva J; taxa de câmbio; balança comercial; setor agropecuário; Marshall-Lerner condition; J-Curve; exchange rate; trade balance; agricultural sector; International Relations/Trade;

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