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A Utilização Do Mimes – Multi-Scale Integrated Model Of The Earth Sytems Ecological Services Como Ferramenta Importante Para A Valoração De Serviços Ecossistêmicos

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Author Info

  • Tosto, Sergio Gomes
  • Ambrosio, Luis Alberto
  • Romeiro, Ademar Ribeiro
  • Fasiaben, Maria Do Carmo Ramos
  • Andrade, Daniel Caixeta
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    Abstract

    O MIMES – Multi-scale Integrated Model of the Earth Sytems Ecological Services é o primeiro modelo global a relacionar a dinâmica entre a tecnologia, produção e bem-estar econômico e os bens e serviços ecossistêmicos do sistema dinâmico da Terra, de forma espacializada. É um “meta-modelo” que representa uma síntese de uma simplificação dos diversos modelos globais dinâmicos existentes nas ciências naturais e sociais em um nível intermediário de complexidade. O objetivo do MIMES é simular o sistema integrado da Terra e avaliar a dinâmica e os valores dos serviços dos ecossistemas. O presente estudo de caso é a modelagem da dinâmica do uso e cobertura das terras na Bacia-Hidrográfica dos Rio Mogi-Guaçú e Pardo em São Paulo. Ele foca a restauração dos serviços ecossistêmicos do controle da erosão. São descritos os estudos da Bacia Hidrográfica e analisado a dinâmica do uso e cobertura das terras, focado nas suas principais forças tais como a legislação ambiental do país e as mudanças nos preços relativos favorecendo uma forte expansão do cultivo da cana-de-açúcar na região. Esta dinâmica tem importante impacto nas taxas de erosão cujas medidas metodológicas são apresentadas com os resultados obtidos. Para simular esta dinâmica foi desenvolvido um modelo seguindo a metodologia do MIMES. O algoritmo desenvolvido modela as mudanças do uso e cobertura das terras baseado principalmente na força das leis ambientais e movimentos dos preços medindo os impactos do processo de erosão. Espera-se que esta dinâmica contribua para a restauração dos serviços ecossistêmicos da Bacia Hidrográfica. -------------------------------------------------------------------The MIMES – Multi-scale Integrated Model of the Earth Sytems Ecological Services is the first global model it relate to dynamic between the technology, output and economic welfare and the property and ecosystem service of the dynamic system of the Land, of form specialited. It is a "goal-model" that represents a synthesis of a simplification of the diverse existing dynamic global models in the social and natural sciences in an intermediate level of complexity. The MIMES objective is going to simulate the system integrated of the Land and evaluate to dynamic and the values of the service of the ecosystems. This paper aims at modeling the land use and land cover dynamics in a watershed in São Paulo State, Brazil. It focuses on the potential restoration of the ecosystem service erosion control. The studied watershed is described and its land use and land cover dynamics analyzed, focusing on its main driving forces such as the legislation enforcement and crop relative price changes favoring a very strong expansion of sugar-cane in the region. This dynamics has important impacts on erosion rates whose measurement methodology is presented along with the results obtained. To simulate this dynamics a model was built following MIMES. The algorithms developed deal with a process of forest recovery, modeling land use/land cover changes pushed mainly by legislation enforcement and price movements and measuring their impacts on the erosion process. It is expected that this dynamics would lead to a restoration of the ecosystem service erosion control.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administracao e Sociologia Rural (SOBER) in its series 46th Congress, July 20-23, 2008, Rio Branco, Acre, Brasil with number 109196.

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    Date of creation: Jul 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:sbrfsr:109196

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    Web page: http://www.sober.org.br/
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    Keywords: Modelo de mudanças do uso das terras; valoração dos serviços ecossistêmicos; controle da erosão de solos; modelo dinâmico integrado multi-escala; land use change model; ecosystem services valuation; soil erosion control; multi-scale integrated dynamic modeling; Environmental Economics and Policy;

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