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Forecasting Price Relationships among U.S Tree Nuts Prices

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Author Info
Ibrahim, Mohammed
Florkowski, Wojciech J.
Abstract

This paper investigates a vector auto regression model, using the Johansen cointegration technique, and the autoregressive integrated moving average time series models to determine the better model for forecasting US tree nut prices over the period 1992-2006. The Johansen contegration test shows lack of long run relationship among pecan, walnut, and almond prices. As such, only autoregressive integrated moving average-type models were used in forecasting U.S. nut prices.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Southern Agricultural Economics Association in its series 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia with number 47212.

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Date of creation: 15 Jan 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ags:saeana:47212

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Related research
Keywords: substitutability; cointegration; tree nuts; long-run equilibrium forecasting; Demand and Price Analysis; Production Economics;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lanza, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo & Giovannini, Massimo, 2005. "Modeling and forecasting cointegrated relationships among heavy oil and product prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 831-848, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Florkowski, Wojciech J. & Lai, Yue, 1997. "Cointegration Between Prices of Pecans and Other Edible Nuts: Forecasting and Implications," 1997 Annual Meeting, July 13-16, 1997, Reno\Sparks, Nevada 35870, Western Agricultural Economics Association. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-26.

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