Enterprise-level risk assessment of geographically diversified commercial farms: a copula approach
AbstractAs agriculture becomes more industrialized, the role of risk measures such as value-at-risk (VaR) will become more utilized. In this case it was applied to geographical diversification and also modifying the traditional VaR estimation by incorporating a copula dependence parameter into the VaR estimation. In addition, an alternative risk measure was also calculated, CVaR. The CVaR, unlike VaR, is a coherent risk measure. Thus it does not suffer from many of the shortcomings of the VaR. The land portfolio consisted of Dryland wheat production acres in Texas, Colorado, and Montana. Three series of net returns were calculated for each region. Based on the VaR and the CVaR, the portfolio was optimized based on minimizing the expected loss based on historical net revenues. The results showed that diversification could be reduced by producing in all three areas.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Southern Agricultural Economics Association in its series 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia with number 46763.
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Copula; CVaR; Risk-Management; Geographical Diversification; Agribusiness; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tomek, William G. & Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa, 2000.
"Risk Management in Agricultural Markets: A Survey,"
121140, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
- Tomek, William G. & Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa, 2000. "Risk Management In Agricultural Markets: A Survey," 2000 Producer marketing and Risk Management Conference, January 13-14, Orlando, FL 19580, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Just, Richard E., 2003. "Risk research in agricultural economics: opportunities and challenges for the next twenty-five years," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 75(2-3), pages 123-159.
- Ashok K. Mishra & Sergio H. Lence, 2005.
"Risk management by farmers, agribusinesses, and lenders,"
Agricultural Finance Review,
Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 65(2), pages 131-148, July.
- Mishra, Ashok K. & Lence, Sergio H., 2005. "Risk Management by Farmers, Agribusinesses, and Lenders," Staff General Research Papers 12607, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Meyer, Jack, 1987. "Two-moment Decision Models and Expected Utility Maximization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 421-30, June.
- Hennessy, David A. & Lapan, Harvey E., 2002. "Use of Archimedean Copulas to Model Portfolio Allocations, The," Staff General Research Papers 5223, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Andrew J. Patton, 2006.
"Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, 05.
- Zhu, Ying & Ghosh, Sujit K. & Goodwin, Barry K., 2008. "Modeling Dependence in the Design of Whole Farm---A Copula-Based Model Approach," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6282, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Richard E. Just & Quinn Weninger, 1999.
"Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed?,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(2), pages 287-304.
- Krueger, Angela & Salin, Victoria & Williams, Gary W. & Eden, Lorraine & Gray, Allan W., 1999. "Profitability Of Geographic Diversification Strategy," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 30(1), March.
- Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
- Joost M.E. Pennings & Olga Isengildina-Massa & Scott H. Irwin & Philip Garcia & Darrel L. Good, 2008. "Producers' complex risk management choices," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 31-54.
- Paul EHLING & Sofia B. RAMOS, 2004.
"Geographic Versus Industry Diversification: Contraints Matter,"
FAME Research Paper Series
rp113, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
- Ehling, Paul & Ramos, Sofia B., 2006. "Geographic versus industry diversification: Constraints matter," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 396-416, October.
- Ehling, Paul & Ramos, Sofia Brito, 2005. "Geographic versus industry diversification: constraints matter," Working Paper Series 0425, European Central Bank.
- Stoica, George, 2006. "Relevant coherent measures of risk," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 794-806, September.
- Qian, Gongming, 2002. "Multinationality, product diversification, and profitability of emerging US small- and medium-sized enterprises," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 611-633, October.
- Alexander, S. & Coleman, T.F. & Li, Y., 2006. "Minimizing CVaR and VaR for a portfolio of derivatives," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 583-605, February.
- Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M. & Yan, Shu, 2007. "Mean-variance portfolio selection with `at-risk' constraints and discrete distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3761-3781, December.
- Carlo Acerbi, 2007. "Coherent measures of risk in everyday market practice," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 359-364.
- Carrieri, Francesca & Errunza, Vihang & Sarkissian, Sergei, 2006. "The Dynamics of Geographic versus Sectoral Diversification: Is There a Link to the Real Economy?," Working Papers 06-4, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
- Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Schurle, Bryan W. & Langemeier, Michael R., 2005. "Three-Dimensional Efficient Portfolio Frontier: Mean, Variance, and Farm Size," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19298, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Rulon D. Pope, 2003. "Agricultural Risk Analysis: Adequacy of Models, Data, and Issues," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1249-1256.
- Vedenov, Dmitry V., 2008. "Application of Copulas to Estimation of Joint Crop Yield Distributions," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6264, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Angela M. Krueger & Victoria Salin & Allan W. Gray, 2001. "Geographic diversification strategy and the implications of global market integration in table grapes," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 81-99.
- Liang, Nellie & Rhoades, Stephen A., 1988. "Geographic diversification and risk in banking," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 271-284, November.
- repec:sae:ecolab:v:16:y:2006:i:2:p:1-2 is not listed on IDEAS
- Anthony Hatherley & Jamie Alcock, 2007. "Portfolio construction incorporating asymmetric dependence structures: a user's guide," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 47(3), pages 447-472.
- Harwood, Joy L. & Heifner, Richard G. & Coble, Keith H. & Perry, Janet E. & Somwaru, Agapi, 1999. "Managing Risk in Farming: Concepts, Research, and Analysis," Agricultural Economics Reports 34081, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
- Gordon J. Alexander & Alexandre M. Baptista, 2004. "A Comparison of VaR and CVaR Constraints on Portfolio Selection with the Mean-Variance Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1261-1273, September.
- Vedenov, Dmitry V. & Barnett, Barry J., 2004. "Efficiency of Weather Derivatives as Primary Crop Insurance Instruments," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(03), December.
- Basak, Gopal & Jagannathan, Ravi & Sun, Guoqiang, 2002. "A direct test for the mean variance efficiency of a portfolio," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1195-1215, July.
- T. Jeffrey Price & Michael E. Wetzstein & Mark W. Rieger, 1997. "Reducing Yield Variation in Peach Orchards by Geographic Scattering," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(4), pages 1119-1126.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.