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Agricultural Productivity, Drought, and Economic Growth in Sahel

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  • Boubacar, Inoussa
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    Abstract

    A standardized precipitation index is used in a regression analysis to quantify the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Sahel. I first estimate a Malmquist productivity index and its efficiency and technical change components. I further assess the statistical significance of the indices by estimating some confidence intervals via a bootstrap method. In the second stage of the analysis, I use a Probit model to estimate the extent to which climate variables affect agricultural productivity. It appears that agricultural performance has been disastrous in many Sahelian countries from 1970 to 2000. Using a comparable cross-country measure of drought, I provide evidence that precipitation variability is constraining not only Sahel’s agricultural performance but also its economic growth. War also plays an equally detrimental role as drought in explaining the causes of Sahel’s economic downturn.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Southern Agricultural Economics Association in its series 2010 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2010, Orlando, Florida with number 56321.

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    Date of creation: Feb 2010
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:saea10:56321

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    Keywords: Productivity; Agriculture; Sahel; International Development; Production Economics; O13; O55; Q54;

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    1. Barrios, Salvador & Bertinelli, Luisito & Strobl, Eric, 2003. "Dry Times in Africa: Rainfall and Africa's Growth Performance," MPRA Paper 5705, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Simar, L. & Wilson, P.W., . "Sensitivity analysis of efficiency scores: how to bootstrap in nonparametric frontier models," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1304, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    3. Jinxia Wang & Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar & Jikun Huang & Scott Rozelle & Lijuan Zhang, 2009. "The impact of climate change on China's agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(3), pages 323-337, 05.
    4. Bezemer, Dirk J & Headey, Derek, 2007. "Agriculture, Development and Urban Bias," MPRA Paper 7026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Nin Pratt, Alejandro & Yu, Bingxin, 2009. "An Updated Look at the Recovery of Agricultural Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51731, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Maddison, David & Manley, Marita & Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep, 2007. "The impact of climate change on African agriculture : a ricardian approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4306, The World Bank.
    7. Derek D. Headey & D.S. Prasada Rao & Mohammad Alauddin, 2005. "Explaining Agricultural Productivity Levels and Growth: An International Perspective," CEPA Working Papers Series WP022005, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
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    Cited by:
    1. Andreas Exenberger & Andreas Pondorfer, 2011. "Rain, temperature and agricultural production: The impact of climate change in Sub-Sahara Africa, 1961-2009," Working Papers 2011-26, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.

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