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Short term effects of moderate carbon prices on land use in the New Zealand emissions trading system: LURNZ-climate land use change simulations


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  • Kerr, Suzi
  • Zhang, Wei
  • Power, William


The New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS) was introduced through the Climate Change Response Act in September 2008 and remains in force. The forestry sector has been directly affected by the NZ ETS since 1 January 2008 and stationary energy, liquid fuels and industrial emissions have been affected since 1 July 2010. When it is fully implemented in 2015 it will cover all sources and gases including agricultural emissions. Using the Land Use in Rural New Zealand model (LURNZ), we simulate rural land use changes that could be driven by the NZETS in order that we can explore their potential implications for emissions and removals (sequestration) and rural incomes and land values. This paper documents our simulation methods and presents short term (up to 2015) simulations for moderate prices ($25 New Zealand dollars per tonne of CO2-e) where our current modelling techniques are most robust.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its series 2010 Conference, August 26-27, 2010, Nelson, New Zealand with number 96941.

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Date of creation: Aug 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ags:nzar10:96941

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Related research

Keywords: Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Industrial Organization; International Relations/Trade; Land Economics/Use; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty;


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  1. Hendy, Joanna & Kerr, Suzi, 2005. "Greenhouse Gas Emission Factor Module: Land Use in Rural New Zealand—Climate Version 1," 2005 Conference, August 26-27, 2005, Nelson, New Zealand 98501, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  2. Anderson, Kym & Lattimore, Ralph G. & Lloyd, Peter J. & MacLaren, Donald, 2008. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Australia and New Zealand," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 48387, World Bank.
  3. Joanna Hendy & Suzi Kerr & Troy Baisden, 2007. "The Land Use in Rural New Zealand Model Version 1 (LURNZv1: Model Description)," Working Papers 07_07, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  4. Joanna Hendy & Suzi Kerr, 2006. "Land Use Intensity Module: Land Use in Rural New Zealand Version 1," Working Papers 06_05, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
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Cited by:
  1. Munchhausen, Susanne von, 2010. "Defining agricultural and forestry systems in econometric land use models: Some critical reflections," 2010 Conference, August 26-27, 2010, Nelson, New Zealand 96491, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.


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