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Farmers� Subjective Perceptions of Yield and Yield Risk

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Author Info

  • Egelkraut, Thorsten M.
  • Sherrick, Bruce J.
  • Garcia, Philip
  • Pennings, Joost M.E.

Abstract

Using survey responses of Illinois corn farmers to differently framed yield questions, we examine their subjective information by relating stated yields and risk to the corresponding objective county measures. The results show that farm-level yields can be best characterized by soliciting probabilistic information, which provides more accurate yield assessments than an open-ended frame and consistent estimates of producers� subjective risk. Moreover, we find that overconfidence can be confused with differences in relevant information and that using recent data may be more appropriate in examining subjective risk statements. Our results are important for agricultural policy-makers and researchers, particularly those who work with surveys that include questions about producers� yields.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18991
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management in its series 2006 Conference, April 17-18, 2006, St. Louis, Missouri with number 18991.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ags:ncrsix:18991

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Web page: http://www.agebb.missouri.edu/ncrext/ncr134/

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Keywords: Crop Production/Industries;

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Cited by:
  1. Egelkraut, Thorsten M. & Garcia, Philip & Pennings, Joost M.E. & Sherrick, Bruce J., 2006. "Producers' Yield and Yield Risk: Perceptions versus Reality and Crop Insurance Use," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21369, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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