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Choosing the best model in the presence of zero trade: a fish product analysis

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  • Tran, Nhuong
  • Wilson, Norbert L.W.
  • Hite, Diane

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to test the hypothesis that food safety (chemical) standards act as barriers to international seafood imports. We use zero-accounting gravity models to test the hypothesis that food safety (chemical) standards act as barriers to international seafood imports. The chemical standards on which we focus include chloramphenicol required performance limit, oxytetracycline maximum residue limit, fluoro-quinolones maximum residue limit, and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) pesticide residue limit. The study focuses on the three most important seafood markets: the European Union’s 15 members, Japan, and North America. Our empirical results confirm the hypothesis and are robust to the OLS as well as alternative zero-accounting gravity models such as the Heckman estimation and the Poisson family regressions. For the choice of the best model specification to account for zero trade and heteroskedastic issues, it is inconclusive to base on formal statistical tests; however the Heckman sample selection and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models provide the most reliable parameter estimates based on the statistical tests, magnitude of coefficients, economic implications, and the literature findings. Our findings suggest that continually tightening of seafood safety standards has had a negative impact on exporting countries. Increasing the stringency of regulations by reducing analytical limits or maximum residue limits in seafood in developed countries has negative impacts on their bilateral seafood imports. The paper furthers the literature on food safety standards on international trade. We show competing gravity model specifications and provide additional evidence that no one gravity model is superior.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium in its series 2012: New Rules of Trade?, December 2012, San Diego, California with number 142790.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ags:iat12m:142790

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Related research

Keywords: seafood trade; food safety (chemical) standards; zero-accounting gravity model; Heckman selection model; Poisson family regression; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; F13; Q17; Q18;

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References

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  1. Martijn Burger & Frank van Oort & Gert-Jan Linders, 2009. "On the Specification of the Gravity Model of Trade: Zeros, Excess Zeros and Zero-inflated Estimation," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 167-190.
  2. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
  3. Disdier, Anne-Célia & Marette, Stéphan, 2010. "The Combination of Gravity and Welfare Approaches for Evaluating Non-Tariff Measures," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 1004, CEPREMAP.
  4. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  5. Jayasinghe, Sampath J.D.Y. & Beghin, John C. & Moschini, GianCarlo, 2010. "Determinants of World Demand for U.S. Corn Seeds: The Role of Trade Costs," Staff General Research Papers 31493, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  6. Rubinstein, Yona & Helpman, Elhanan & Melitz, Marc, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," Scholarly Articles 3228230, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Xuepeng Liu, 2009. "GATT/WTO Promotes Trade Strongly: Sample Selection and Model Specification," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 428-446, 08.
  8. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1981. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 781-93, May.
  9. Gert-Jan M. Linders & Henri L.F. de Groot, 2006. "Estimation of the Gravity Equation in the Presence of Zero Flows," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-072/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  10. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
  11. Chunlai Chen & Jun Yang & Christopher Findlay, 2008. "Measuring the Effect of Food Safety Standards on China’s Agricultural Exports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 144(1), pages 83-106, April.
  12. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
  13. Puhani, Patrick A, 2000. " The Heckman Correction for Sample Selection and Its Critique," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 53-68, February.
  14. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
  15. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
  16. Bo Xiong & John Beghin, 2012. "Does European aflatoxin regulation hurt groundnut exporters from Africa?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 589-609, September.
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