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Climate Change, Agricultural Productivity and its Impacts on the Food Industry: A General Equilibrium Analysis

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  • Ludena, Carlos E.
  • Mejia, Carla

Abstract

This paper analyses the impacts of climate change of food processing sectors worldwide. Specifically, we analyze the impacts that changes in agricultural productivity might have for seven food industry sectors, namely meat, vegetable oils and fats, dairy, sugar, processed rice, other food products and beverage and tobacco products. We analyze two different scenarios of crops yield changes based on Müller et al. (2009), one with full CO2 fertilization and one without CO2 fertilization. We use a general equilibrium approach, given the advantages that this methodology provides for worldwide analysis of productivity and its impacts on production, trade and prices of primary agriculture, and ultimately, food processing sectors. We use the GTAP computable general model with version 7 of the GTAP database, with a base year of 2004. We aggregate this database into 10 regions and 12 sectors, with special emphasis on food processing sectors. The results show that overall, the impacts on food processing depends whether we consider CO2 fertilization or not.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil with number 126851.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae12:126851

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Keywords: Climate change; productivity; agriculture; food industry; Crop Production/Industries; Production Economics;

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  1. Pushpam Kumar & Uwe A. Schneider, 2008. "Greenhouse gas emission mitigation through agriculture," Working Papers FNU-155, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2008.
  2. Schneider, Uwe A. & Kumar, Pushpam, 2008. "Greenhouse Gas Mitigation through Agriculture," Choices, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 23(1).
  3. World Bank, 2010. "World Development Report 2010 : Development and Climate Change," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 4387, January.
  4. Burniaux, Jean-Marc & Truong Truong, 2002. "GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 923, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  5. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Koo, Jawoo & Robertson, Richard & Sulser, Timothy & Zhu, Tingju & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & Palazzo, Amanda & Batka, Miroslav & Magalhaes, Marilia & Va, 2009. "Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation," Food policy reports 21, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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