The Effects of Uniform Climate Change on International Cotton Prices and Production
AbstractIn this paper, we take the yield impacts of Schlenker and Roberts (2009), specifically on cotton, under a range of uniform temperature changes and apply it to a global fiber model to map changes in cotton production and prices. Although we use the 2011-2020 time period, the results should be viewed more as potential long-term market adjustments in the absence of new technology rather than a specific forecast. We find that in terms of extreme higher temperatures in the U.S. alone (+5°C) results in higher cotton prices as much as 17% against the baseline over the 2011-2020 projection period as production is cut back, on average, by 1.8%. Meanwhile, a 5°C increase in temperature in the U.S. and the rest-of-the-world (ROW) induces a price increase of as much as 135%, on average, throughout the projection period given a lower production of 20% from baseline levels that ignore temperature changes. More modest temperature changes (+1°C) result in much more modest (+6% in price and -1.3% in global production) changes in the cotton market.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil with number 126362.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
cotton; climate change; production; trade; net trade model; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
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- Wolfram Schlenker & Michael J. Roberts, 2006.
"Estimating the impact of climate change on crop yields: The importance of non-linear temperature effects,"
0607-01, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
- Wolfram Schlenker & Michael J. Roberts, 2008. "Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields: The Importance of Nonlinear Temperature Effects," NBER Working Papers 13799, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier Desch�nes & Michael Greenstone, 2007.
"The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
- Deschenes, Olivier & Greenstone, Michael, 2006. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," Working paper 291, Regulation2point0.
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