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Price Risk in the Wheat Market in Poland

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  • Figiel, Szczepan
  • Hamulczuk, Mariusz

Abstract

This paper addresses the issue of price risk assessment in the agricultural commodity markets. Four the most frequently used approaches and related methods of measuring price risk in commodity markets were characterized and used to assess price risk in the wheat market in Poland. Results of the analysis showed that predictable and unpredictable components of the price series should be distinguished to properly evaluate real risk exposure. Some noticeable changes in the volatility of the wheat prices over the analyzed period indicate that exposure to the price risk in Polish wheat market after accession to the EU has increased.

Suggested Citation

  • Figiel, Szczepan & Hamulczuk, Mariusz, 2012. "Price Risk in the Wheat Market in Poland," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126144, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae12:126144
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.126144
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moschini, Giancarlo & Hennessy, David A., 2001. "Uncertainty, risk aversion, and risk management for agricultural producers," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 88-153, Elsevier.
    2. Dehn,Jan, 2000. "Commodity price uncertainty in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2426, The World Bank.
    3. Moledina, Amyaz A. & Roe, Terry L. & Shane, Mathew, 2004. "Measuring Commodity Price Volatility And The Welfare Consequences Of Eliminating Volatility," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 19963, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 127-152, April.
    5. Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 169-177, April.
    6. B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), 2001. "Handbook of Agricultural Economics," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 2.
    7. Jan Dehn, 2000. "Commodity Price Uncertainty in Developing Countries," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2000-12, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Jan Dehn, 2000. "Commodity price uncertainty in developing countries," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    9. B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), 2001. "Handbook of Agricultural Economics," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    10. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cezary Klimkowski, 2015. "Changes in selected polish agricultural price volatility," International Conference on Competitiveness of Agro-food and Environmental Economy Proceedings, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 4, pages 86-95.

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    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis; International Development; Risk and Uncertainty;
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