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Eastern Enlargement of the EU: A Comprehensive Welfare Assessment

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Author Info
Kohler, Wilhelm
Abstract

This paper takes a welfare-view on eastern enlargement of the EU, focusing on incumbent countries. Enlargement is decomposed into three elements: Single-market integration on commodity markets, budgetary costs from EU-expenditure policies, and single market- induced migration from new to present member countries. I first use an analytical model to derive a welfare equation that identifies the principle channels for incumbent country welfare gains and losses from enlargement, including product differentiation, capital accumulation, and unemployment due to search-costs. I then propose a method that allows to extend welfare results obtained from a detailed calibrated version of this model for Germany to other incumbent countries. The approach relies on model elasticities extracted from the German model which are then applied to other countries' idiosyncratic "enlargement-shocks". Constructing detailed indices for such country specific "enlargement-shocks", I arrive at characteristic inter-country pattern of enlargement- induced welfare effects for all EU15 countries. Aggregating these across countries reveals enlargement to be beneficial for the union as a whole, although several countries stand to suffer welfare losses.

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Paper provided by Hamburg Institute of International Economics in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 26377.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ags:hiiedp:26377

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Related research
Keywords: EU Enlargement; Economic Integration; Commercial Policy; Migration; Welfare Analysis; Computable General Equilibrium; Search Unemployment; International Relations/Trade; Political Economy; F02; F12; F13; F15; F22;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Christian Keuschnigg, 1998. "Investment Externalities and a Corrective Subsidy," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 449-469, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Borjas, George J., 1999. "The economic analysis of immigration," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 28, pages 1697-1760 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Wilhelm Kohler & Chrisran Keuschnigg, 2001. "An Incumbent Country View on Eastern Enlargement of the EU. Part II: The Austrian Case," Empirica, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 159-185, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Christian Keuschnigg & Mirela Keuschnigg & Wilhelm Kohler, 2001. "The German Perspective on Eastern EU Enlargement," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(4), pages 513-542, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Keuschnigg, Christian & Kohler, Wilhelm, 2002. "Eastern Enlargement of the EU: How Much Is It Worth for Austria?," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 324-42, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Wilhelm Kohler & Christian Keuschnigg, 2000. "An Incumbent Country View on Eastern Enlargement of the EU Part I: A General Treatment," Empirica, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 325-351, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Baldwin, Richard E. & Venables, Anthony J., 1995. "Regional economic integration," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1597-1644 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Fritz Breuss, . "A Prototype Model of EU's 2007 Enlargement," FIW Working Paper series 007, FIW. [Downloadable!]
  2. Gabriel J Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler, 2009. "Can International Migration Ever Be Made a Pareto Improvement?," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 305/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Marius BRÜLHART & Matthieu CROZET & Pamina KOENIG, 2004. "Enlargement and the EU Periphery: The Impact of Changing Market Potential," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 04.02, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Wilhelm Kohler & Gabriel Felbermayr, . "Can International Migration Ever Be Made a Pareto Improvement?," Discussion Papers 09/01, University of Nottingham, GEP. [Downloadable!]
  5. Thilo W. Glebe, 2006. "National welfare effects of trade bloc enlargement," Discussion Papers 022006, Technische Universität München, Environmental Economics and Agricultural Policy Group, revised 2008.
  6. Hiro Lee & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2006. "Deep Integration and Its Impacts on Nonmembers: EU Enlargement and East Asia," Discussion Paper Series 184, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University. [Downloadable!]
  7. Marcel DRACEA, 2008. "The implications of the accession to the European Union upon taxation in Romania," Annals of University of Craiova - Economic Sciences Series, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 2(36), pages 458-465, may. [Downloadable!]
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