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DIESE MODELLE SIND ZU KOMPLEX!-ODER DOCH NICHT?: EXPERIMENTELLES DESIGN UND METAMODELLIERUNG ALS MOGLICHER WEG, DAS KOMMUNIKATIONSPROBLEM AGENTENBASIERTER MODELLE IN DER POLITIKANALYSE ZU LOSEN (German)

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Author Info

  • Happe, Kathrin
  • Kellermann, Konrad

Abstract

Agent-based models have recently become very popular. However, it is often difficult to communicate the models' complexity and assumptions. Hence, criticising them becomes a challenging task. This paper addresses this problem and discusses different ways to increase the transparency and acceptability of complex models. We use designed experiments and metamodelling to show relationships between model parameters and the impact of policy options. We do so using the model AgriPoliS which has been initialised using an artificial agricultural structure Agentenbasierte Ansätze erfreuen sich einer immer größeren Beliebtheit. Allerdings besteht ein grundlegendes Problem dieses Ansatzes darin, dass die Komplexität der angewendeten Modelle und der darin getroffenen Annahmen häufig schwer zu vermitteln ist. Dies führt dazu, dass die „Kritikfähigkeit“ entsprechender Modell nur eingeschränkt gegeben ist. Dieser Beitrag greift dieses Problem auf und zeigt Möglichkeiten auf, die Transparenz und Akzeptanz komplexer Modellierungsansätze zu erhöhen. Hierzu greifen wir ein spezielles Verfahren der Sensitivitätsanalyse auf und zeigen, wie mit Hilfe von Metamodellen die Zusammenhänge von Modellparametern und unterschiedlichen Politikoptionen analysiert werden können. Als Anwendungsbeispiel dient das Modell AgriPoliS, das für eine fiktive Agrarstruktur kalibriert wurde.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA) in its series 47th Annual Conference, Weihenstephan, Germany, September 26-28, 2007 with number 7613.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ags:gewi07:7613

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Related research

Keywords: Agentenbasierte Modellierung; Design of Experiments; Sensitivitätsanalyse; Politikanalyse; Agent-based modelling; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

References

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  1. Kleijnen, J.P.C., 2004. "An Overview of the Design and Analysis of Simulation Experiments for Sensitivity Analysis," Discussion Paper 2004-16, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  2. Thomas Glauben & Hendrik Tietje & Christoph Weiss, 2006. "Agriculture on the move: Exploring regional differences in farm exit rates in Western Germany," Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 103-118, March.
  3. Kellermann, Konrad & Balmann, Alfons, 2006. "How Smart Should Farms Be Modeled? Behavioral Foundation of Bidding Strategies in Agent-Based Land Market Models," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25446, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  4. Berger, Thomas, 2001. "Agent-based spatial models applied to agriculture: a simulation tool for technology diffusion, resource use changes and policy analysis," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 25(2-3), pages 245-260, September.
  5. Balmann, Alfons, 1997. "Farm-Based Modelling of Regional Structural Change: A Cellular Automata Approach," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 24(1), pages 85-108.
  6. Happe, Kathrin & Balmann, Alfons & Kellermann, Konrad & Sahrbacher, Christoph, 2008. "Does structure matter? The impact of switching the agricultural policy regime on farm structures," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 431-444, August.
  7. Happe, Kathrin & Damgaard, Martin & Osuch, Amanda & Sattler, Claudia & Zander, Peter & Uthes, Sandra & Schuler, Johannes & Piorr, Annette, 2006. "CAP-reform and the provision of non-commodity outputs in Brandenburg," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 55(5/6).
  8. Bruce Edmonds & David Hales, 2003. "Replication, Replication and Replication: Some Hard Lessons from Model Alignmen," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 6(4), pages 11.
  9. Vonk Noordegraaf, Antonie & Nielen, Mirjam & Kleijnen, Jack P. C., 2003. "Sensitivity analysis by experimental design and metamodelling: Case study on simulation in national animal disease control," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 433-443, May.
  10. Kleijnen, J.P.C. & Groenendaal, W.J.H. van, 1992. "Simulation: A statistical perspective," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-388278, Tilburg University.
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