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Alert at Maradi: Preventing Food Crises in West Africa by Using Price Signals

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  • Araujo, Claudio
  • Araujo-Bonjean, Catherine
  • Brunelin, Stephanie

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to exploit grain price data to detect the warning signs of looming food crises in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Firstly we identify which markets play a leading role at the national and regional level. The second step consists of identifying crisis periods and characterizing price movements during the period proceeding a crisis. This analysis leads to the identification of early warning indicators whose relevance is tested using panel data qualitative choice models. The results show that monitoring price movements on "leading markets" during crucial periods of the year can help in forecasting future crises.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland with number 114226.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae11:114226

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Keywords: Food security; Africa; Niger; early warning systems; discrete choice panel model; Food Security and Poverty; Q18; C25; D40; O18;

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  1. Lancaster, Tony, 2000. "The incidental parameter problem since 1948," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 391-413, April.
  2. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23, January.
  3. Ravallion, Martin, 1985. "The Performance of Rice Markets in Bangladesh during the 1974 Famine," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(377), pages 15-29, March.
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