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Dairy reform scenarios with CAPSIM acknowledging quota rent uncertainty

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  • Witzke, Heinz Peter
  • Tonini, Axel

Abstract

The study provides an agricultural multi commodity analysis able to focus and investigate the ongoing EU milk reform. The analysis is carried with the Common Agricultural Policy SIMulation (CAPSIM) model which is a comparative-static, partial equilibrium modelling tool covering the whole of agriculture of EU member states. The model provides a reference run which is a "baseline scenario" where the 2003 CAP Reform is projected into the future. This scenario is compared to a "quota expiry" scenario where milk quotas are abolished by 2015, a "soft landing" scenario where further quota expansions are envisaged and an "early quota expiry" by 2009. Sensitivity analysis is done for different set of quota rent assumptions and export refund abolition. Key results, under a "quota expiry scenario" are that milk production would increase by 2.8% in EU27 whereas milk prices would drop by 7.5%.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium with number 43654.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae08:43654

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Related research

Keywords: EU milk reform; CAPSIM; quota rent.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance;

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  1. Witzke, Heinz Peter & Britz, Wolfgang, 2005. "Plagiarism Without Apology--Systematic Integration of Available Information in a Long Run Agricultural Outlook," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24666, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  2. Seale, James L., Jr. & Regmi, Anita & Bernstein, Jason, 2003. "International Evidence On Food Consumption Patterns," Technical Bulletins 33580, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  3. Réquillart, Vincent, 2008. "Economic Analysis of the Effects of the Expiry of the EU Milk Quota System," Open Access publications from University of Toulouse 1 Capitole http://neeo.univ-tlse1.fr, University of Toulouse 1 Capitole.
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Cited by:
  1. Mariusz Hamulczuk & Katarzyna Hertel, 2009. "Implications of the Abolition of Milk Quota System for Polish Agriculture – Simulation Results Based on the AG MEMOD Model," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 3(3), September.

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