Comparative Performance of Selected Mathematical Programming Models
AbstractThis study compares the predictive performance of several mathematical programming models. Using the cropping patterns, yields and crop gross margins of eighteen farms over a period of five years we compare the models' optimum solutions with observed crop distributions after the Reform of the EU Common Agricultural Policy of 1992. The results show that the best prediction corresponds to a model that includes expected profit and a qualitative measure of crop riskiness. The results suggest that, in order to obtain reliable predictions, the modelling of farmers' responses to policy changes must consider the risk associated with any given cropping pattern. Finally, we test the ability of the proposed model to reproduce the farmers' observed behaviour with equally good performance under conditions of limited data availability.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain with number 24792.
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
model performance; mathematical programming; modelling; decision-making; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Atwood, Joseph A. & Held, Larry J. & Helmers, Glenn A. & Watts, Myles J., 1986. "Performance Of Risk-Income Models Outside The Original Data Set," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(02), December.
- William J. Baumol, 1963. "An Expected Gain-Confidence Limit Criterion for Portfolio Selection," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 174-182, October.
- Josling, Tim, 1994. "The Reformed CAP and the Industrial World," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 21(3-4), pages 513-27.
- Tamiz, Mehrdad & Jones, Dylan & Romero, Carlos, 1998. "Goal programming for decision making: An overview of the current state-of-the-art," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 569-581, December.
- Sumpsi, JoseMaria & Amador, Francisco & Romero, Carlos, 1997. "On farmers' objectives: A multi-criteria approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 64-71, January.
- Rehman, T. & Romero, C., 1993. "The application of the MCDM paradigm to the management of agricultural systems: Some basic considerations," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 239-255.
- Judez, L. & Chaya, C. & Martinez, S. & Gonzalez, A. A., 2001. "Effects of the measures envisaged in "Agenda 2000" on arable crop producers and beef and veal producers: an application of Positive Mathematical Programming to representative farms of a Span," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 121-138, February.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.