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Comparative Performance of Selected Mathematical Programming Models

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  • Arriaza Balmon, Manuel
  • Gomez-Limon, Jose Antonio
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    Abstract

    This study compares the predictive performance of several mathematical programming models. Using the cropping patterns, yields and crop gross margins of eighteen farms over a period of five years we compare the models' optimum solutions with observed crop distributions after the Reform of the EU Common Agricultural Policy of 1992. The results show that the best prediction corresponds to a model that includes expected profit and a qualitative measure of crop riskiness. The results suggest that, in order to obtain reliable predictions, the modelling of farmers' responses to policy changes must consider the risk associated with any given cropping pattern. Finally, we test the ability of the proposed model to reproduce the farmers' observed behaviour with equally good performance under conditions of limited data availability.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24792
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain with number 24792.

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    Date of creation: 2002
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae02:24792

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    Keywords: model performance; mathematical programming; modelling; decision-making; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

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    1. Atwood, Joseph A. & Held, Larry J. & Helmers, Glenn A. & Watts, Myles J., 1986. "Performance Of Risk-Income Models Outside The Original Data Set," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(02), December.
    2. William J. Baumol, 1963. "An Expected Gain-Confidence Limit Criterion for Portfolio Selection," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 174-182, October.
    3. Josling, Tim, 1994. "The Reformed CAP and the Industrial World," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 21(3-4), pages 513-27.
    4. Tamiz, Mehrdad & Jones, Dylan & Romero, Carlos, 1998. "Goal programming for decision making: An overview of the current state-of-the-art," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 569-581, December.
    5. Sumpsi, JoseMaria & Amador, Francisco & Romero, Carlos, 1997. "On farmers' objectives: A multi-criteria approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 64-71, January.
    6. Rehman, T. & Romero, C., 1993. "The application of the MCDM paradigm to the management of agricultural systems: Some basic considerations," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 239-255.
    7. Judez, L. & Chaya, C. & Martinez, S. & Gonzalez, A. A., 2001. "Effects of the measures envisaged in "Agenda 2000" on arable crop producers and beef and veal producers: an application of Positive Mathematical Programming to representative farms of a Span," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 121-138, February.
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