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Yield trend estimation in the presence of non-constant technological change and weather effects

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  • Conradt, Sarah
  • Bokusheva, Raushan
  • Finger, Robert
  • Kussaiynov, Talgat

Abstract

The application of yield time series in risk analysis prerequisites the estimation of technological trend which might be present in the data. In this paper, we show that in presence of highly volatile yield time series and non-constant technology, the consideration of the weather effect in the trend equation can seriously improve trend estimation results. We used ordinary least squares (OLS) and MM, a robust estimator. Our empirical analysis is based on weather data as well as farm-level and county-level yield data for a sample of grain-producing farms in Kazakhstan.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland with number 122541.

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Date of creation: 23 Feb 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa123:122541

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Related research

Keywords: Yield detrending; weather information; robust trend estimation; aggregation; Risk and Uncertainty; Q19;

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  1. Antoine Leblois & Philippe Quirion, 2013. "Agricultural insurances based on meteorological indices: realizations, methods and research challenges," Post-Print hal-00656778, HAL.
  2. Joseph Atwood & Saleem Shaik & Myles Watts, 2003. "Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed? A Reexamination," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(4), pages 888-901.
  3. Robert Finger, 2010. "Revisiting the Evaluation of Robust Regression Techniques for Crop Yield Data Detrending," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(1), pages 205-211.
  4. Finger, Robert, 2010. "Evidence of slowing yield growth - The example of Swiss cereal yields," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 175-182, April.
  5. Roger Claassen & Richard E. Just, 2010. "Heterogeneity and Distributional Form of Farm-Level Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(1), pages 144-160.
  6. Jerry R. Skees & J. Roy Black & Barry J. Barnett, 1997. "Designing and Rating an Area Yield Crop Insurance Contract," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(2), pages 430-438.
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Cited by:
  1. Bokusheva, Raushan & Conradt, Sarah, 2012. "Catastrophic crop insurance effectiveness: does it make a difference how yield losses are conditioned?," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122443, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  2. Finger, Robert, 2012. "How strong is the “natural hedge”? The effects of crop acreage and aggregation levels," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122538, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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