The spread of Asian Soybean Rust (ASR) represents a real threat to the U.S. soybean sector. We assess the potential impacts of ASR on domestic soybean production and commodity markets as well as the competitive position of the US in the soybean export market. We develop a mathematical stochastic dynamic sector model with endogenous prices to assess the economic impacts of ASR on US agriculture. The model takes into account the disease spread during the cropping season, the inherent uncertainty regarding the risk of infection, and the dichotomous decisions that farmers make (no treatment, preventive treatment, and curative treatment) facing the risk of infection. Our results suggest substantial impacts from potential ASR spread on agricultural output, prices and exports. Our simulation results suggest that substantial losses to the US soybean producers may be avoided by establishing effective soybean rust controls. ASR control policies can be particularly efficient if applied in the gateway regions on the path of the ASR spread. On the other hand, our results indicate a possible gradual shift in soybean production from lower-latitude states toward higher-latitude states.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management in its series Working Papers with number
51177.