Demographic Transformation and Its Implications on Rice Value Chain in Asia

The demographic structure of Asian countries is rapidly transforming with large implications on future rice production and consumption in the region. Literature on the impact of demographic transformation and human capital development on the nature and organization of rice value chain are scanty. This paper examines the depth and breadth of ongoing demographic transformation and draws ramifications on rice value chain in Asia. We use 27 years long primary panel household data of Bangladesh and long-run time-series secondary data from 17 major rice-growing countries in East, Southeast, and South Asia. The data were analyzed using simple descriptive statistics and derived implications for future. The results show that Asia is observing declining trends in women fertility rate, child mortality rate, family size, population growth rate, share of rural and agricultural population, farm labor population, and involvement of youth in farming. On the other hand, rural outmigration, ageing of agricultural population, and urbanization show increasing trends. These emerging trends are likely to be more rapid in coming decades, with far-reaching impacts on future rice value chain mediated through labor market, rice market, and rice demand and supply. Declining and ageing agricultural population will lead to both quantity and quality of labor scarcity, abandoning of farming land, low rate of adoption of improved technologies, higher production cost, and slow growth of rice production. When rice supply growth trail behind the rice demand growth, it will push rice prices up and will hurt the poor disproportionately more. Policymakers and scientists must anticipate more rapid demographic transformation in the future and implement necessary technological, institutional, policy, and strategic solutions to manage or cope with future demographic transformations. This warrants agricultural policies and programs focusing on farm mechanization, introducing innovative technologies, using information and communication technologies, training youths on improved farming practices, providing financial and other support services to young farmers, and developing efficient rural-urban marketing systems. Finally, investments are also needed to develop and disseminate rice varieties with desired attributes that consumers demand.