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Identification of stochastic processes for an estimated icewine temperature hedging variable

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  • Cyr, Don
  • Kusy, Martin

Abstract

Weather derivatives are a relatively new form of financial security that can provide firms with the ability to hedge against the impact of weather related risks to their activities. Participants in the energy industry have employed standardized weather contracts trading on organized exchanges since 1999 and the interest in non-standardized contracts for specialized weather related risks is growing at an increasing rate. The purpose of this paper is to examine the potential use of weather derivatives to hedge against temperature related risks in Canadian ice wine production. Specifically we examine historical data for the Niagara region of the province of Ontario, Canada, the largest icewine producing region of the world, to determine an appropriate underlying variable for the design of an option contact that could be employed by icewine producers. Employing monte carlo simulation we derive a range of benchmark option values based upon varying assumptions regarding the stochastic process for an underlying temperature variable. The results show that such option contracts can provide valuable hedging opportunities for producers, given the historical seasonal temperature variations in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Cyr, Don & Kusy, Martin, 2007. "Identification of stochastic processes for an estimated icewine temperature hedging variable," Working Papers 37298, American Association of Wine Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aawewp:37298
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.37298
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/37298/files/AAWE_WP05.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 6-16, March.
    2. Richards, Timothy J. & Manfredo, Mark R. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2004. "Pricing Weather Derivatives," Working Papers 28536, Arizona State University, Morrison School of Agribusiness and Resource Management.
    3. Jewson,Stephen & Brix,Anders With contributions by-Name:Ziehmann,Christine, 2005. "Weather Derivative Valuation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521843713.
    4. M. Davis, 2001. "Pricing weather derivatives by marginal value," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 305-308, March.
    5. Dwight R. Sanders, 2004. "Pricing Weather Derivatives," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1005-1017.
    6. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 2004. "Disentangling diffusion from jumps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 487-528, December.
    7. Helyette Geman & M. Leonardi, 2005. "Alternative Approaches to Weather Derivatives Pricing," Post-Print halshs-00144304, HAL.
    8. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1386 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Ben Salk, Sana & Blondel, Serge & Daniel, Christophe & Deffains-Crapsky, Catherine & Jutard, Catherine & Sejourne, Bruno, 2007. "Management of climate risks in the wine sector: a field study on risky behaviour," 101st Seminar, July 5-6, 2007, Berlin Germany 9251, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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