Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The use of an integrated model of pest spread and commodity markets to estimate the cost of a pest outbreak


Author Info

  • Hafi, Ahmed
Registered author(s):


    There are significant benefits in integrating a biological spread model into economic assessment of the cost of pest incursions (such as varroa mite or Mexican feather grass) on agricultural industries. To illustrate the potential usefulness of an integrated approach, a generic bioeconomic model is developed by linking a simple stochastic pest spread module, built around a set of logistic spread equations, and a partial equilibrium module of the market for an affected agricultural industry. The pest spread module estimates the damage over time, while the partial equilibrium module estimates the resultant effect of a reduction in supply on the commodity market. The estimated effects on market variables are then used to estimate the cost of a pest outbreak. In this study, the cost of a hypothetical pest outbreak is estimated for three scenarios: (1) do nothing; (2) control actions to slow the spread; and (3) control actions aimed at eradication of the pest. The estimates are derived for a large number of random values of the spread rates specified in the logistic functions. The study also presents the frequency distribution of benefits of implementing the two control strategies.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its series 2011 Conference (55th), February 8-11, 2011, Melbourne, Australia with number 100554.

    as in new window
    Date of creation: 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ags:aare11:100554

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: AARES Central Office Manager, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU, Canberra ACT 0200
    Phone: 0409 032 338
    Web page:
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: pest spread; logistic functions and partial equilibrium model; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.



    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.


    Access and download statistics


    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aare11:100554. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.