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Investment in irrigation technology: an application of real options analysis

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Author Info
McClintock, Anthea
Abstract

Investment in irrigation infrastructure and technologies, particularly those that reduce on-farm water use have become a major focus of government programs both at a State and Commonwealth level. Particular attention has been given to increasing the uptake of water “saving” technologies among irrigators. The design of programs capable of achieving government objectives at least cost requires an understanding of farm level investment decisions. In this context, the influence of uncertainty on decisions to invest in irrigation technology and infrastructure is examined. The potential for uncertainty to influence investment decisions via strategies to manage risk is demonstrated using the method of real options valuation. The approach is applied to case studies of investment in evaporation mitigation technologies. It is shown that there are circumstances where uncertainty surrounding the value of water savings is significant enough to influence the decision to invest in water saving technologies. The results also demonstrate that where uncertainty exists, rates of subsidy to encourage faster uptake of these technologies need to be higher than those indicated by traditional NPV analysis. This is further exacerbated when irrigators are required to relinquish water entitlements in return for the subsidy.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its series 2009 Conference (53rd), February 11-13, 2009, Cairns, Australia with number 47934.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aare09:47934

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Related research
Keywords: investment; irrigation technology; real options; uncertainty; subsidy;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Anonymous, 2006. "Rural Water Use and the Environment: The Role of Market Mechanisms," Commissioned Studies 8020, Productivity Commission. [Downloadable!]
  2. Pannell, David J. & Malcolm, Bill & Kingwell, Ross S., 2000. "Are we risking too much? Perspectives on risk in farm modelling," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 69-78, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. C. J. O'Donnell & W. E. Griffiths, 2006. "Estimating State-Contingent Production Frontiers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, American Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 88(1), pages 249-266, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Martin Odening & Oliver Mußhoff & Alfons Balmann, 2005. "Investment decisions in hog finishing: an application of the real options approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 32(1), pages 47-60, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Sangtaek Seo & Eduardo Segarra & Paul D. Mitchell & David J. Leatham, 2008. "Irrigation technology adoption and its implication for water conservation in the Texas High Plains: a real options approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 38(1), pages 47-55, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kenneth A. Baerenklau & Keith C. Knapp, 2007. "Dynamics of Agricultural Technology Adoption: Age Structure, Reversibility, and Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, American Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 89(1), pages 190-201, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Dixit, Avinash, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-32, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Murat Isik, 2004. "Incentives for Technology Adoption Under Environmental Policy Uncertainty: Implications for Green Payment Programs," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 27(3), pages 247-263, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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