The sharp increase in Australia's terms of trade since 2003-04 has dramatic regional and sectoral implications. Mining-intensive regions have gained from the jump in export prices. Import-competing sectors have faced greater competition both from falling import prices and due to rising demand for domestic factors from the mining sectors. The drought of 2006 will widen the gap between winning and losing regions. In Indonesia, even if we assume that the oil extraction sector is facing resource depletion, a long-run terms-of-trade improvement may result in aggregate consumption increasing should real GDP fall relative to the base case. The TERM framework is highly suitable for modelling Brazil and China, each with around 30 regions.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.