IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea17/259208.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Surprise and Dispersion: Informational Impact of USDA Announcements

Author

Listed:
  • Fernandez-Perez, Adrian
  • Frijns, Bart
  • Indriawan, Ivan
  • Tourani-Rad, Alireza

Abstract

We examine the role of information asymmetry on changes in bid‐ask spreads during major United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) announcements. Our analyses, using corn, wheat, and soybean futures, indicate that information asymmetry is significantly higher on USDA announcement days compared to nonannouncement days. We further observe that the increased information asymmetry prior to news announcements is mainly driven by the divergence in private information possessed by market participants. However, once the USDA news is released, not only the dispersion in investors’ private information but also the surprises in news announcements contribute to increased information asymmetry and widening of bid‐ask spreads.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Frijns, Bart & Indriawan, Ivan & Tourani-Rad, Alireza, 2017. "Surprise and Dispersion: Informational Impact of USDA Announcements," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259208, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea17:259208
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.259208
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/259208/files/Abstracts_17_05_11_18_33_32_06__156_62_9_152_0.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.259208?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kevin P. McNew & Juan Andres Espinosa, 1994. "The informational content of USDA crop reports: Impacts on uncertainty and expectations in grain futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 475-492, June.
    2. Lehecka, Georg V., 2014. "The Value of USDA Crop Progress and Condition Information: Reactions of Corn and Soybean Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 1-18, April.
    3. Glosten, Lawrence R, 1987. "Components of the Bid-Ask Spread and the Statistical Properties of Transaction Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(5), pages 1293-1307, December.
    4. Olga Isengildina-Massa & Berna Karali & Scott H Irwin, 2017. "Do Markets Correct for Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts? Evidence from Private Analysts and Futures Prices," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 559-583.
    5. Xiaoyang Wang & Philip Garcia & Scott H. Irwin, 2014. "The Behavior of Bid-Ask Spreads in the Electronically-Traded Corn Futures Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(2), pages 557-577.
    6. Tarun Chordia & Richard Roll & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2001. "Market Liquidity and Trading Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 501-530, April.
    7. Mizrach, Bruce & Otsubo, Yoichi, 2014. "The market microstructure of the European climate exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 107-116.
    8. Tannura, Michael A. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2008. "Weather, Technology, and Corn and Soybean Yields in the U.S. Corn Belt," Marketing and Outlook Research Reports 37501, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    9. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Gomez, Jennifer K., 2008. "The Impact of Situation and Outlook Information in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets: Evidence from WASDE Reports," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 89-103, April.
    10. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    11. Olga Isengildina & Scott H. Irwin & Darrel L. Good, 2006. "Are Revisions to USDA Crop Production Forecasts Smoothed?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(4), pages 1091-1104.
    12. Karali, Berna, 2012. "Do USDA Announcements Affect Comovements Across Commodity Futures Returns?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 1-21, April.
    13. Krinsky, Itzhak & Lee, Jason, 1996. "Earnings Announcements and the Components of the Bid-Ask Spread," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1523-1535, September.
    14. Andrew M. McKenzie, 2008. "Pre-Harvest Price Expectations for Corn: The Information Content of USDA Reports and New Crop Futures," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(2), pages 351-366.
    15. Madhavan, Ananth & Richardson, Matthew & Roomans, Mark, 1997. "Why Do Security Prices Change? A Transaction-Level Analysis of NYSE Stocks," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 1035-1064.
    16. Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H. & Leuthold, Raymond M. & Yang, Li, 1997. "The value of public information in commodity futures markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 559-570, April.
    17. Andros Gregoriou, 2011. "The liquidity effects of revisions to the CAC40 stock index," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(5), pages 333-341.
    18. Quanbiao Shang & Mindy Mallory & Philip Garcia, 2018. "The components of the bid†ask spread: Evidence from the corn futures market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(3), pages 381-393, May.
    19. Chen Gu & Alexander Kurov, 2018. "What drives informed trading before public releases? Evidence from natural gas inventory announcements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(9), pages 1079-1096, September.
    20. Linwood A. Hoffman & Xiaoli L. Etienne & Scott H. Irwin & Evelyn V. Colino & Jose I. Toasa, 2015. "Forecast performance of WASDE price projections for U.S. corn," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(S1), pages 157-171, November.
    21. Hee‐Joon Ahn & Jangkoo Kang & Doojin Ryu, 2008. "Informed trading in the index option market: The case of KOSPI 200 options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(12), pages 1118-1146, December.
    22. Nathan Kauffman, 2013. "Have extended trading hours made agricultural commodity markets riskier?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 67-94.
    23. Linda H. Chen & George J. Jiang & Qin Wang, 2013. "Market Reaction to Information Shocks—Does the Bloomberg and Briefing.com Survey Matter?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(10), pages 939-964, October.
    24. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
    25. Julieta Frank & Philip Garcia, 2010. "Bid-Ask Spreads, Volume, and Volatility: Evidence from Livestock Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(1), pages 209-225.
    26. repec:ags:jrapmc:122315 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Riordan, Ryan & Storkenmaier, Andreas & Wagener, Martin & Sarah Zhang, S., 2013. "Public information arrival: Price discovery and liquidity in electronic limit order markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1148-1159.
    28. Michael K. Adjemian, 2012. "Quantifying the WASDE Announcement Effect," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(1), pages 238-256.
    29. T. Clifton Green, 2004. "Economic News and the Impact of Trading on Bond Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1201-1234, June.
    30. Georg V. Lehecka & Xiaoyang Wang & Philip Garcia, 2014. "Gone in Ten Minutes: Intraday Evidence of Announcement Effects in the Electronic Corn Futures Market," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 504-526.
    31. I. Krinsky & J. Lee, 1996. "Earning Announcements and the Components of the Bid-Ask Aspread," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 313, McMaster University.
    32. McNichols, Maureen & Trueman, Brett, 1994. "Public disclosure, private information collection, and short-term trading," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 69-94, January.
    33. Gerald D. Gay & Betty J. Simkins & Marian Turac, 2009. "Analyst forecasts and price discovery in futures markets: The case of natural gas storage," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 451-477, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Indriawan, Ivan & Martinez, Valeria & Tse, Yiuman, 2021. "The impact of the change in USDA announcement release procedures on agricultural commodity futures," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    2. Adjemian, Michael K. & Irwin, Scott H., 2020. "The market response to government crop news under different release regimes," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    3. An N. Q. Cao & Michel A. Robe, 2022. "Market uncertainty and sentiment around USDA announcements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 250-275, February.
    4. Yang, Yao & Karali, Berna, 2022. "The Role of USDA Reports on Extreme Volatility Coexceedances: An Application to the Soybean Complex," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322104, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Joshua Huang & Teresa Serra & Philip Garcia & Scott H. Irwin, 2022. "To batch or not to batch? The release of USDA crop reports," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(1), pages 143-154, January.
    6. Cao, An N.Q. & Ionici, Octavian & Robe, Michel A., 2022. "USDA Announcements and the Stock Prices of Food-Sector Companies," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322062, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kishore Joseph & Philip Garcia, 2018. "Intraday market effects in electronic soybean futures market during non-trading and trading hour announcements," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(11), pages 1188-1202, March.
    2. Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin & Olga Isengildina‐Massa, 2020. "Supply Fundamentals and Grain Futures Price Movements," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 548-568, March.
    3. Indriawan, Ivan & Martinez, Valeria & Tse, Yiuman, 2021. "The impact of the change in USDA announcement release procedures on agricultural commodity futures," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    4. Ying, Jiahui & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 2017. "A Temporal Impact Assessment Method for the Informational Content of USDA Reports in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258201, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Quanbiao Shang & Mindy Mallory & Philip Garcia, 2018. "The components of the bid†ask spread: Evidence from the corn futures market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(3), pages 381-393, May.
    6. Karali, Berna & Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Adjemian, Michael K. & Johansson, Robert, 2019. "Are USDA reports still news to changing crop markets?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 66-76.
    7. Frijns, Bart & Indriawan, Ivan & Otsubo, Yoichi & Tourani-Rad, Alireza, 2019. "The cost of trading during Federal Funds Rate announcements: Evidence from cross-listed stocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 176-187.
    8. Xiaoyang Wang & Philip Garcia & Scott H. Irwin, 2014. "The Behavior of Bid-Ask Spreads in the Electronically-Traded Corn Futures Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(2), pages 557-577.
    9. Adjemian, Michael K. & Johansson, Robert & McKenzie, Andrew & Thomsen, Michael, 2016. "The Value of Government Information in an Era of Declining Budgets," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235811, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Cao, Xiang & Karali, Berna & Irwin, Scott H. & Adjemian, Michael & Johansson, Robert C., 2021. "When does USDA information have the most impact on crop and livestock markets?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    11. Jieun Lee & Doojin Ryu & Ali M. Kutan, 2016. "Monetary Policy Announcements, Communication, and Stock Market Liquidity," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 227-250, September.
    12. Michael K Adjemian & Robert Johansson & Andrew McKenzie & Michael Thomsen, 2018. "Was the Missing 2013 WASDE Missed?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 653-671, December.
    13. Joshua Huang & Teresa Serra & Philip Garcia, 2021. "The Value of USDA Announcements in the Electronically Traded Corn Futures Market: A Modified Sufficient Test with Risk Adjustments," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 712-734, September.
    14. Andrew M. McKenzie & Jessica L. Darby, 2017. "Information Content of USDA Rice Reports and Price Reactions of Rice Futures," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 552-568, September.
    15. Arango, Ignacio & Agudelo, Diego A., 2019. "How does information disclosure affect liquidity? Evidence from an emerging market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    16. Ignacio Arango & Diego A. Agudelo, 2017. "How does information disclosure affect liquidity?Evidence from an Emerging Market," Documentos de Trabajo CIEF 16990, Universidad EAFIT.
    17. Diego A. Agudelo & Ignacio Arango, 2017. "How does information disclosure affect liquidity? Evidence from an Emerging Market," Documentos de Trabajo CIEF 16944, Universidad EAFIT.
    18. He, Yan & Lin, Hai & Wu, Chunchi & Dufrene, Uric B., 2009. "The 2000 presidential election and the information cost of sensitive versus non-sensitive S&P 500 stocks," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 54-86, February.
    19. Crego, Julio A., 2020. "Why does public news augment information asymmetries?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 72-89.
    20. Qin Wang & Hsiao-Fen Yang, 2015. "Earnings announcements, trading volume, and price discovery: evidence from dual class firms," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 669-700, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea17:259208. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.