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Agricultural R&D Policy in the Face of Climate and Economic Uncertainty

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  • Cai, Yongyang
  • Golub, Alla A.
  • Hertel, Thomas W.
  • Judd, Kenneth L.

Abstract

Since the 1950s, increased agricultural productivity has allowed food supply growth to outpace demand on a global scale, resulting in a downward trend in world prices. Investments into agricultural research and development (R&D) have been the foundation for this achievement, but there is a long lag in agricultural productivity response to the investments. The optimal path of R&D spending depends on future population, income and climate change, all of which are highly uncertain. This study offers a dynamic framework for analyzing optimal agricultural R&D spending in the 21st century factoring in uncertainties in these drivers, as well as lagged pay offs on investments into improvements of agricultural productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Cai, Yongyang & Golub, Alla A. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Judd, Kenneth L., 2016. "Agricultural R&D Policy in the Face of Climate and Economic Uncertainty," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235981, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea16:235981
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.235981
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty;

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