Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Optimal Path for Global Land Use under Climate Change Uncertainty

Contents:

Author Info

  • Steinbuks, J.
  • Cai, Y.
  • Elliott, J.W.
  • Hertel, T.W.
  • Judd, K.L.

Abstract

This study seeks assess how the uncertainties associated with the un- derlying biophysical processes in uence the optimal pro le of land use over the next century, in light of potential irreversibility in these deci- sions. Our analysis is based on a dynamic stochastic model of global land use, and employs 3 modeling scenarios constructed using global crop simulation and climate models. The results of the deterministic model show that climate impacts appear to have mixed e ects on yields - higher temperatures hurt food production but this e ect is partially o set by greater CO2 fertilization e ect. Declining food crop yields result in rela- tively small expansion of cropland and accumulated GHG emissions from land use change. We then contrast this optimal path to that obtained when the uncertainty is not ignored, thereby demonstrating signi cance of factoring uncertainty in the optimization stage.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/151413
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. with number 151413.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jun 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:151413

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 555 East Wells Street, Suite 1100, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Email:
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: climate change; crop yields; dynamic stochastic models; global land use; uncertainty; Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C61; Q15; Q23; Q26; Q40; Q54;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:151413. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.