IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea13/151413.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimal Path for Global Land Use under Climate Change Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Steinbuks, J.
  • Cai, Y.
  • Elliott, J.W.
  • Hertel, Thomas W.
  • Judd, K.L.

Abstract

This study seeks assess how the uncertainties associated with the un- derlying biophysical processes in uence the optimal profile of land use over the next century, in light of potential irreversibility in these deci- sions. Our analysis is based on a dynamic stochastic model of global land use, and employs 3 modeling scenarios constructed using global crop simulation and climate models. The results of the deterministic model show that climate impacts appear to have mixed effects on yields - higher temperatures hurt food production but this effect is partially offset by greater CO2 fertilization effect. Declining food crop yields result in rela- tively small expansion of cropland and accumulated GHG emissions from land use change. We then contrast this optimal path to that obtained when the uncertainty is not ignored, thereby demonstrating significance of factoring uncertainty in the optimization stage.

Suggested Citation

  • Steinbuks, J. & Cai, Y. & Elliott, J.W. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Judd, K.L., 2013. "Optimal Path for Global Land Use under Climate Change Uncertainty," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151413, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:151413
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.151413
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/151413/files/SteinbuksEtAl2013AAEA.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.151413?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:151413. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.