Optimal Path for Global Land Use under Climate Change Uncertainty
AbstractThis study seeks assess how the uncertainties associated with the un- derlying biophysical processes in uence the optimal pro le of land use over the next century, in light of potential irreversibility in these deci- sions. Our analysis is based on a dynamic stochastic model of global land use, and employs 3 modeling scenarios constructed using global crop simulation and climate models. The results of the deterministic model show that climate impacts appear to have mixed e ects on yields - higher temperatures hurt food production but this e ect is partially o set by greater CO2 fertilization e ect. Declining food crop yields result in rela- tively small expansion of cropland and accumulated GHG emissions from land use change. We then contrast this optimal path to that obtained when the uncertainty is not ignored, thereby demonstrating signi cance of factoring uncertainty in the optimization stage.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. with number 151413.
Date of creation: Jun 2013
Date of revision:
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climate change; crop yields; dynamic stochastic models; global land use; uncertainty; Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C61; Q15; Q23; Q26; Q40; Q54;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
- Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
- Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
- Q26 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Recreational Aspects of Natural Resources
- Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2013-07-05 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2013-07-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENV-2013-07-05 (Environmental Economics)
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