The Impact of China's Demographic Transition on Economic Growth and Income Distribution: CGE Modeling with Top-Down Micro-Simulation
AbstractDemographic transition due to population aging is an emerging issue throughout the developing world, and especially in China, which has undergone demographic transition more rapidly than most industrial economies. This paper quantifies the economic and distributional effects in the context of demographic transition using the integrated recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with top-down behavioral micro-simulation. The results show that the population aging slow down China’s economy growth rate due to the exhausted of demographic dividend with high cost of labor force. The consequences from the poverty and inequality index indicate that population aging has a negative impact to the reduction of poverty while it is positive as refers to the equality during the process of demographic transition. The average age within a household has a noticeable contribution to total inequality. These findings suggest that measures for stimulating the second demographic dividend should be carried out to promote the economic growth as well as the reduction of poverty. The inequality within the same household groups while with different household age should be put more emphasize on. What’s more, the social pension system should be improved, especially in rural China
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. with number 151276.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 555 East Wells Street, Suite 1100, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
More information through EDIRC
Demographic Transition; Economic Growth; Income Distribution; CGE model; Community/Rural/Urban Development; International Development;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2013-07-05 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2013-07-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2013-07-05 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-DEM-2013-07-05 (Demographic Economics)
- NEP-DEV-2013-07-05 (Development)
- NEP-LTV-2013-07-05 (Unemployment, Inequality & Poverty)
- NEP-TRA-2013-07-05 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- François Bourguignon & Anne-Sophie Robilliard & Sherman Robinson, 2003.
"Representative versus real households in the macro-economic modeling of inequality,"
DELTA Working Papers
2003-05, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Sherman, Robinson & Robilliard, Anne-Sophie & Bourguignon, François, 2005. "Representative versus real households in the macro-economic modelling of inequality," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/4535, Paris Dauphine University.
- François Bourguignon & Anne-Sophie Robilliard & Sherman Robinson, 2003. "Representative versus real households in the macro-economic modeling of inequality," Working Papers DT/2003/10, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
- Jacques Poot, 2007. "Demographic Change and Regional Competitiveness: The Effects of Immigration and Ageing," Population Studies Centre Discussion Papers dp-64, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre.
- Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino & Erling Holmøy & Birger Strøm & Tom Wennemo, 2004.
"Population ageing and fiscal sustainability: An integrated micro-macro analysis of required tax changes,"
367, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
- Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino & Erling Holmøy & Birger Strøm & Tom Wennemo, 2004. "Population ageing and fiscal sustainability: An integrated micro-macro analysis of required tax changes," CHILD Working Papers wp06_04, CHILD - Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic economics - ITALY.
- Zhai, Fan & Hertel, Thomas W., 2009. "Economic and Poverty Impacts of Agricultural, Trade and Factor Market Reforms in China," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 52787, World Bank.
- Kazutoshi Miyazawa, 2005.
"Growth and inequality: a demographic explanation,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
6546, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Kazutoshi Miyazawa, 2005. "Growth and Inequality: A Demographic Explanation," STICERD - Distributional Analysis Research Programme Papers 75, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Zhai, Fan & Hertel, Thomas, 2005. "Impacts of the Doha Development Agenda on China : the role of labor markets and complementary education reforms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3702, The World Bank.
- Dahan, M & Tsiddon, D, 1996.
"Demographic Transition, Income Distribution and Economic Growth,"
42-96, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
- Dahan, Momi & Tsiddon, Daniel, 1998. " Demographic Transition, Income Distribution, and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 29-52, March.
- Maurizio Bussolo & Rafael E De Hoyos & Denis Medvedev, 2010. "Economic growth and income distribution: linking macro-economic models with household survey data at the global level," International Journal of Microsimulation, Interational Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 92-103.
- Fougere, Maxime & Merette, Marcel, 1999. "Population ageing and economic growth in seven OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 411-427, August.
- Wang, Jiao & Mayes, David & Wan, Guanghua, 2005. "Income Distribution and Labour Movement in China after WTO Membership: A CGE Analysis," Working Paper Series RP2005/38, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Cai Fang & Wang Dewen, 2005. "Demographic transition: implications for growth," Labor and Demography 0512001, EconWPA.
- Cai, Fang & Wang, Meiyan, 2010. "Growth and structural changes in employment in transition China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 71-81, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.