Impact of Changing Seasonal Rainfall Patterns on Rainy-Season Crop Production in the Guinea Savannah of West Africa
AbstractRainy-season farming is a major source of income for the rural population in the Guinea Savannah zone of West Africa. Farming systems in the region are dominated by rain-fed production of cereals, but include also leguminous crops and oilseeds. A recent World Bank study has identified high potentials for competitive agricultural production and agriculture-led growth in the Guinea Savannah zones of Sub-Saharan Africa. This optimistic outlook is conditional on appropriate investment strategies, policy reforms, and institutional changes. Furthermore, the World Bank warns that global climate change could pose a potential constraint for agricultural growth due to likely reductions in rainfall levels and significant increases in rainfall variability. This could lead to serious dry spells and a drop of crop yields. The study regions are the département Atakora in Benin, the région Sud-Ouest in Burkina Faso, and the Upper East Region in Ghana. Climate projections and trend estimates for these regions show very heterogeneous results for level and variability of monthly rainfall patterns. Therefore, we want to investigate which potential future developments pose the greater threat for agricultural production in the study regions. We develop a set of regional agricultural supply models, each representing 10-12 cropping activities and roughly 150.000 ha of agricultural area. We distinguish two stages of crop production: The planting stage from April to June and the yield formation stage between June and November. Preliminary results suggest that drought events during the planting stage have a more severe impact on the output of individual crops than drought events during the second stage. In contrast, the impact on total farm revenues appears to be more prominent during the second stage, when farmers have a limited capability to adjust their production plan. A clear if not surprising result is the larger vulnerability of crops with growth cycles ranging from the very beginning to the very end of the rainy season. The observed diversity of cropping activities serves the purpose to reduce the vulnerability to adverse rainfall events within a certain range. However, some extreme events are associated with very poor harvests of specific cash crops, thus severely affecting the income of the farming sector. A comprehensive picture will be obtained once the climate change scenarios are completed and the model results are tested and validated for various settings.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. with number 151208.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 555 East Wells Street, Suite 1100, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
More information through EDIRC
Climate change; West Africa; agricultural production; stochastic production frontier; highest posterior density estimation; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Development; International Relations/Trade;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2013-07-05 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2013-07-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENV-2013-07-05 (Environmental Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2009. "World Supply and Demand of Food Commodity Calories," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1235-1242.
- Antle, John M, 1983. "Testing the Stochastic Structure of Production: A Flexible Moment-based Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(3), pages 192-201, July.
- Leaver, Rosemary, 2004. "Measuring the supply response function of tobacco in Zimbabwe," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 43(1), March.
- Just, Richard E. & Pope, Rulon D., 1978. "Stochastic specification of production functions and economic implications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 67-86, February.
- Ngeleza, Guyslain K. & Owusua, Rebecca & Jimah, Kipo & Kolavalli, Shashidhara, 2011. "Cropping practices and labor requirements in field operations for major crops in Ghana: What needs to be mechanized?," IFPRI discussion papers 1074, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- john M. Antle, 2010. "Asymmetry, Partial Moments, and Production Risk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1294-1309.
- Thomas Heckelei & Hendrik Wolff, 2003. "Estimation of constrained optimisation models for agricultural supply analysis based on generalised maximum entropy," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 27-50, March.
- Nin-Pratt, Alejandro & Johnson, Michael & Magalhaes, Eduardo & You, Liangzhi & Diao, Xinshen & Chamberlin, Jordan, 2011. "Yield gaps and potential agricultural growth in West and Central Africa:," Research reports alejandronin-pratt, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.